After consecutive disastrous seasons for the Twins, it will be difficult for most to find hope for 2013; 2014 is another matter, what with the All-Star Game and the Twins' top prospects finally knocking on the door. Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks and B.J. Hermsen will start in Rochester next year barring a flurry of trades from the Twins clearing room for them (or Hermsen just winning a starting job) and Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Jose Barrios and Byron Buxton could be in New Britain or even Rochester in 2014, meaning a midseason callup in 2014 wouldn't be out of the question. I think the Twins will be looking to load up for a legitimate run at the postseason in 2014 to help generate excitement for the All-Star Game, but I think next season can still be a successful one for the Twins, maybe not a postseason appearance, but maybe a flirtation with contention that leads to multiple division titles in following years, such as 2001 and 2008.

Continue reading Hope for the Hopeless →

With the Twins' season on life support, the best hope for this team lies in the future. Unfortunately, their best prospect is at least a couple years away, even in the best-case scenario. As most avid fans know, that top prospect is Miguel Sano, who is dominating in the minors at a young age in a way not seen since a certain young catcher was drafted No. 1 by his hometown team, but even that catcher did not show the power Sano has. Of course, Sano hasn't shown the defensive skills and baseball instincts that Mauer had.

Still, Sano has me thinking what could be in a couple years. Sano is dominating at Beloit, so he should be promoted to Ft. Myers before too long. He could conceivably start 2013 in New Britain and the Twins have shown they are willing to skip AAA for the right prospect (such as Mauer), so Sano could be up in 2014. Mauer will still be under contract and if he is still catching, that could be a dynamic duo to build around. I thought I would look at the team the Twins could put around him.

Those under contract in 2014: Mauer, Willingham, Span and Perkins. So, that is a nice start. The Twins have an option on Blackburn, but I can't imagine them picking that up.

Arb eligible: Duensing, Valencia, Burnett, Swarzak, Gray, Maloney and Butera. One solid reliever but not much else. Valencia might be worth keeping in his first year of arbitration.

Serfs/Prospects: Sano, Dozier, Plouffe, Revere, Diamond, Hendriks, Walters, Parmelee, Benson, Arcia, Guerra, Waldrop, Manship, DeVries, Levi Michael, Wilkin Ramirez, Gibson, Wimmers, Rosario, Florimon, Carlos Gutierrez, Slama, Chris Herrmann.

So, here's what I'm looking at:

C: Mauer, Herrmann

1B: Parmelee (Arcia? Sano? Valencia? Plouffe?)

2B: Rosario (Michael? Dozier? Florimon?)

3B: Sano (Valencia?)

SS: Dozier (Michael? Florimon?)

OF: Willingham, Span, Benson, Arcia, Revere, Hicks, Plouffe

DH: Willingham? Plouffe? Arcia?

SP: Gibson, Hendriks, Wimmers, Diamond, Swarzak/Walters/Manship/DeVries/No. 1 pick

RP: Perkins, Duensing, Gutierrez, Slama, Guerra, Waldrop, Burnett

I think that would be a fun team to watch. At least more fun that what we saw the first six weeks of this season or all but a couple of weeks of last season. The starting pitching looks to continue to be a concern along with the second catcher and first base. Rosario at second is a stretch and Michael has struggled in Ft. Myers, but both have higher potential than most of the prospects. Of course, the injuries to Gibson and Wimmers are real concerns. I'd like to think a top college pitcher could make it to the majors quickly, but 2014 would be pushing it. Even if the Twins get him signed quickly, I doubt they'll have him pitch more than a handful of innings after a full collegiate season, so he'll probably still start 2013 in Ft. Myers. The Twins have  had a few college pitchers go from Ft. Myers to Rochester in one season, but that's asking a lot. The good news, is that this roster would be well under the current $100M payroll. The Twins only have about $41M committed to 2014 and Duensing and Butera would be the only players in their second year of arbitration (none in their third), and I doubt either will command much money. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Doumit was re-signed or given an extension. This is a perfect situation for him. A lineup could look like this:

Span
Dozier
Mauer
Willingham
Doumit
Sano
Arcia
Benson
Rosario

That could be fun to watch.

Because they shouldn't.

That's the best reason for hope, because history shows that the Twins under Gardy have been at their best when the prognostications are at their worst. Under Gardy, the Twins have won the division every year the consensus was that they would be lucky to be .500 except for 2008, and that season the Twins lost in a one-game playoff after another improbable comeback. Other than that, the Twins were big underdogs in 2002 and 2006 and they probably had their best two seasons under Gardy other than 2010.

I think Gardy loves to play up the "Us against Them" mentality and is able to get everyone to buy into the team concept when there is little pressure on the team. That also goes for the late-season comebacks in 2003 and 2009.

If I was to give an honest prediction, I would say that it is going to be very hard to make the playoffs in the AL. The Rangers, Angels, Yankees, Rays, Red Sox and Tigers are all going to be very tough and are all probably better than anyone in the NL. Still, every time we try to count the Twins out, they surprise us with another fantastic season. After last year, this better be a doozy of a season.

We just have to remember that a .500 season would be an 18-game improvement, which is outstanding. If the Twins can get close to that and give me hope for the future, such as a healthy season from Mauer  and signs of future success from Parmelee, Revere, Hendricks, Dozier and Benson, and an emergence of a reliever or two, I'll consider it a very successful season.

From LEN3:

Here are your 2012 Minnesota Twins

Catchers: Joe Mauer. Ryan Doumit

Infielders: Justin Morneau, Chris Parmelee, Alexi Casilla, Jamey Carroll, Danny Valencia, Luke Hughes, Sean Burroughs

Outfielders: Josh Willingham, Denard Span, Trevor Plouffe, Ben Revere

Starters: Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Liam Hendriks, Nick Blackburn

Relievers: Matt Capps, Glen Perkins, Jared Burton, Brian Duensing. Matt Maloney, Alex Burnett, Jeff Gray, Anthony Swarzak

There was a discussion the other day on the upcoming Twins seasons and the mood was cautious at best. While certainly a 99-loss season leaves plenty of reason for pessimism, this is still the time for hope for better things for our favorite team. Of course, just getting back to .500 would be a large improvement. So, I thought I would look at what the Twins have done to improve and how this team is looking to start the season.

First off, here's a look at least season's primary starting 9 vs. who we expect to be the starting nine guys in the lineup for Opening Day this year.

C: Drew Butera                  Joe Mauer

1B: Justin Morneau         Chris Parmelee

2B: Alexi Casilla                Alexi Casilla

SS: Tsuyoshi Nishioka   Jamey Carroll

3B: Danny Valencia         Danny Valencia

LF: Delmon Young           Josh Willingham

CF: Ben Revere                  Denard Span

RF: Michael Cuddyer      Ryan Doumit

DH: Jim Thome                  Justin Morneau

Replacing Butera and Nishi with actual major league players are both big steps forward and I feel like the Twins adequately replaced any real losses from last year, essentially replacing Cuddyer and Thome with Willingham and Doumit, who give the Twins better roster flexibility. That lineup looks very deep and could provide a lot of big innings. Now here's the expected bench:

Revere

Hughes

Plouffe

Burroughs

This may be the best bench the Twins have had in quite some time. It is the first time I can remember the Twins have gone without a quintessential utility infielder (ala Denny Hocking or Nick Punto). Of course, it could be argued that the Twins start two utility infielders in their middle infield, but that is why it is a good idea to go with more offense on the bench. Revere will be an ideal pinch runner/defensive replacement for both Willingham and Doumit (or other possible RFs, such as Plouffe or Parmelee). Hughes and Plouffe provide right-handed pop off the bench for a team with a lefty-heavy starting lineup. Burroughs provides an experienced left-handed pinch hitter for Carroll or even Casilla or Valencia and a left-handed backup to Valencia. The lineup provides some great options for when facing pitchers with large platoon splits:

vs. Lefty                    vs. Righty

Span CF                     Span CF
Carroll SS                 Carroll SS
Mauer C                     Mauer C
Willingham LF        Mourneau DH
Doumit DH               Doumit RF
Valencia 3B              Parmelee 1B
Plouffe RF                 Burroughs 3B
Hughes 1B                  Casilla 2B
Casilla 2B                   Revere LF

I think there's plenty of reason to be optimistic about the offense, with the key being the health of Span, Mauer and Morneau, but I think the biggest concern for Twins fans are about the pitching staff. But I think there is reason to be optimistic there. First of all, the starting staff is primarily unchanged from the 94-win 2010 team, with Jason Marquis replacing Kevin Slowey. The key will be Liriano getting back to 2010 form and Scott Baker staying healthy. Liriano has been brilliant this spring with excellent control and more strikeouts than innings pitched. Baker had a sore elbow slow him and will start the season on the DL for a week or so, but he did the same in 2010 and ended up pitching over 170 innings. If Liriano is your No. 1 and Baker is No. 2 and you have innings eaters like Pavano and Marquis at the back of the rotation then you should do pretty well, especially if you have an offense to support them.

The bullpen was unquestionably the biggest problem in 2011. The good news is that only Glen Perkins, one of the few highlights for the Twins, Matt Capps and the durable and flexible Anthony Swarzak return. Alex Burnett might return as well, but that is looking less and less likely (thankfully). Duensing has returned to the role he excelled in in 2010, so the Twins have an experienced (and hopefully reliable) closer and a top setup man along with a solid lefty and swing man. The questions remain with the rest, but Matt Maloney has been great this spring and Jared Burton has been solid and both have major league experience. The best reason for optimism is the Twins have specialized in making a good bullpen out of a lot of question marks. Hopefully, they'll continue to evaluate bullpen options on results instead of radar guns.

With so many health questions, the Plan Bs for each position is very important for this team. The biggest improvement in this area was signing Doumit to be Mauer's backup, giving the Twins a guy who would not only be far better than Butera, but better than the average catcher. J.R. Towles has hit well this spring and the former top prospect could be a solid backup catcher if needed. Morneau is another big question. The Twins already have Parmelee at first, and of course anyone can DH. If Morneau does go down, Doumit can be the primary DH, which is what he originally was signed to be, and Plouffe and Revere can share time in RF. Span is another concern, but Revere has shown himself to be a brilliant CF and Joe Benson is another option in AAA.  The middle infield depth another health concern since Carroll is 38 and Casilla has never lasted through an entire season as a starter, but Brian Dozier has had a great spring and most reports have him the Twins' best defensive shortstop right now. My guess is he would be the starter for the Twins if Terry Ryan hadn't already promised that job to Carroll when he signed him this offseason. If either starter in the middle infield goes down, the other would play second and Dozier would most likely be called up to play shortstop. Luke Hughes is another option to play second base with the other starter playing shortstop. Even if Valencia goes down, the Twins could platoon Burroughs and Hughes there.

The pitching depth is more of a concern, but Liam Hendricks looks ready to be a solid major league starter and may even be an improvement over Marquis or Blackburn. Anthony Swarzak also could be a decent fifth starter if needed. Kyle Waldrop and Carlos Gutierrez provide hope for bullpen help this summer, although Waldrop will start the season on the DL with arm problems. Of course, the Twins provded in 2010 that its not difficult to find middle relief help during the season.

The reality is, the Twins won't be able to replace Mauer or Morneau, so a lot of the team's success hinges on their health. But the good news is both appear to be healthy at this point. Mauer is playing like pretty much every other year but 2011 and Morneau is finally hitting after an awful start to spring training. I think both are as healthy as they are going to get. I don't think they'll wear down, however the concern with Morneau is how much of a hit or jolt can he take before his concussion symptoms return. If he can play at least two-thirds of the season for the first time in three seasons, the Twins chances for a return to respectability will be greatly improved.