Category Archives: Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins

What’s the Plan?

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The injury to Joel Zumaya once again brings up the Twins' lack of pitching, especially in the bullpen.  We all know that there were a lot of free agent pitchers out there, and that almost all of them went to teams other than the Twins.  That means the Twins will enter this season with pretty much the same pitchers they had last year other than some subtractions, most notably Joe Nathan.  It seems obvious this will not be good enough.

The thing is that if it's obvious to us, it must be obvious to the people running the Twins, too.  That raises the question of why the Twins didn't do more to deal with it.  There are two default explanations we tend to go to in a situation like this, but neither seems to apply.

1.  The Twins are a bunch of tightwads.  Maybe they are, but that's not really an answer here.  No one was expecting them to sign a superstar.  As many people have pointed out, most notably Aaron Gleeman, there were lots of pitchers the Twins could have signed for very little.  The Twins may or may not be cheap, but that's not the reason they did not make more moves.

2.  The general manager is a doofus.  I have to confess, if Bill Smith was still the GM, this is where I'd have gone, but he's not.  Terry Ryan is, and I don't think Terry Ryan is a doofus.

When Terry Ryan ran the Twins before, he always had some sort of plan.  It may or may not have been a good plan, but he always had one, and eventually we could see what it was.  So, assuming he has a plan now, the questions are what is the plan, and why did making moves to improve the pitching this off-season not fit the plan.

I clearly don't know, but here's my best guess.  Terry Ryan made the decision that the Twins were not likely to contend for the division anyway.  While the pitchers out there might have helped some, they were not good enough to turn the Twins from a 99-loss team into contenders, and they were not good enough to be part of a long-term solution.  Therefore, he decided to go with what they have.  This will save a little money, but I don't think that was the primary motivation.  I think the main reasons are a)  to give some of these guys one last, long chance in the majors and determine, once and for all, whether they're good enough to pitch there and b) to make sure there's room for guys like Liam Hendriks, Carlos Gutierrez, and Deolis Guerra when they're ready to come up.

We may or may not like this plan, but that's my best guess at what the plan is.  What do you think?

History, Minnesota Twins

February 21, 1993: Random Day in Twins History

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I used a random number generator to pick a season from the past with the idea that I would quickly highlight the Twins history that occurred today in that year.  The generator sent me to the year 1993.

On this date in 1993, pitchers and catchers had reported to Ft. Myers but position players were not expected for another four days. However, forty-one year old Dave Winfield, the big off-season acquisition for the Twins, reported to camp.  The only two regulars who were not in Ft. Myers by this point were Pedro Munoz (expected tomorrow) and Scott Erickson who was attending a wedding.

Winfield brought a first-basemen's mitt with him to camp despite having only played ten innings in his entire career - all in 1978 - at the position.  Tom Kelly told the media that he anticipated that Kent Hrbek would play 120 games at first base in 1993 with his other appearances being at DH while Winfield would play about 120 games at DH with his other games at either first base or right field.*  Winfield told reporters that he had not picked up a bat the entire offseason, but worked out often to remain in shape.

*Winfield would play just thirty-two innings at first base during the regular season.  Hrbek started 110 games at first base that year with David McCarty, Gene Larkin and Terry Jorgensen each making more appearances at first base than Winfield.

Winfield had driven in the game-winning run in Game 7 of the previous World Series for Toronto, and Kelly expected another strong offensive season from Winfield.  When asked if Winfield's performance would decrease because of his age, Kelly said, "If he had a decline last year from the previous year, then you might be able to say that. But he was in a good lineup and we feel we have pretty much the same kind of lineup, where he should be just as productive. Even if he does tail off a little bit, those would still be pretty good numbers."*

*While Winfield would record his 3,000th hit that season, his OPS dropped 100 points, his OPS+ dropped from 137 to 105, and his WAR dropped almost four wins to replacement level.

Besides the addition of Winfield, another hot topic was Tom Kelly's discussion about Kirby Puckett's future.  Kelly suggested that he might transition Puckett to right field over the course of the season.  In typical Kelly double-speak, he rambled, "I'd always consider it.  I'm going to talk to him about it.  If he wants to move I might move him.  But then I might not.  It wouldn't seem right.  It just doesn't seem like the Twins if you move him from there.  It's like a peanut butter sandwich - you're supposed to have jelly."*

*Kelly did eventually move Puckett to right field over the course of the season, and Puckett would start just three games in center field after 1993.  The move occurred over the All-Star Break as Puckett started just three games in centerfield over the next two months.  Curiously, he then shifted back to centerfield for his final sixteen starts in September.

The organization prided itself on its focus on simplicity and working hard.  Having won at least ninety games in each of the previous two seasons, and a World Series title, the Twins expected to compete in the AL West again.  Still, the front office conceded that its success hinged on young pitching.

"The top three [of Scott Erickson, Kevin Tapani, and Jim Deshaies] I think will be fine," VP of Player Personnel Terry Ryan said. "Whether or not the other three guys [Pat Mahomes, Willie Banks, and Mike Trombley] will provide us with solid fourth and fifth starters is the big question. If they give us consistency at that four spot then we're certainly going to be competitive. Any time you throw our offense out there, then we're going to be OK."

The team also planned to realign the left side of its infield as Scott Leius attempted to shift from third base to shortstop while Terry Jorgensen would start at third base.*  The Twins also suggested that they were attempted to acquire Dave Hansen from the Dodgers to work into the third base logjam.  Discussing the rotation and lineup, Ryan explained, "We have some question marks on the left side of our infield, and we are awfully righthanded, both on the mound and with our bats.  But I think we'll show that if you can hit, it doesn't matter whether you bat right or left."

*Leius only played in eight games that season and Pat Meares took over at SS during the year.  Jorgensen struggled at third while splitting time with Mike Pagliarulo and Jeff Reboulet.

Minnesota Twins

Cost of the Status Quo

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Thought experiment! Let's say that the Twins were so taken by the 2006 squad that they decided to keep each player from that team as long as they were good enough to play professional ball. In this experiment, we could think of all the Twins' players as restricted free agents where the team would always match the offer sheet. Looking back at that squad, there are a bunch of guys who make next to nothing these days (or are out of baseball), but there are some pulling down big money. The list, by 2012 guaranteed compensation:

$24M -- Santana
$23M -- Mauer
$18M -- Hunter
$14M -- Morneau
$11.9M -- Lohse
$10M -- Cuddyer (est, full contract is $31.5M over 3 yrs)
$7M -- Kubel (est, full contract is $15M over 2yrs)
$7M -- Nathan
$7M -- Garza (arb. estimate)
$6.5M -- Baker
$5.5M -- Bartlett
$5M -- Liriano (arb. estimate)
$4.5M -- Crain
$3.75M -- Guerrier
$2M -- Silva (yes, the Cubs still owe Silva $2M next year)
$1.5M -- Punto
$1.5M -- Perkins (arb. estimate)
$1M -- Casilla (arb. estimate)

So that's $153M for 18 players (but 17 active players.) Figure about $1M/player for the last 8 spots on the active roster and $400K/player for the 15 spots left on the 40-man, and that gets you to $167M for a full 40-man roster. If you figure that Blackburn and Span make the active roster, then you're up to about $173M. I'm not sure how many wins that team would be expected to win, but at first glance I wouldn't be too optimistic.

Of course, if the Twins had managed their roster this way, Luis Castillo would never have been traded and we wouldn't have gone through the Drew Butera experience. Maybe that's worth $173M all by itself.

2011 Twins Game Logs, Minnesota Twins, MLB

Game 159: Twins at Indians

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Final road game on this long, weary journey. There's been injuries, disease and a bunch of headaches. Have we run out of Tylenol yet?

My California math says its Liam Hendriks' turn to pitch, but that's only if he didn't get moved up to pitch in the doubleheader. The Twins want to win this one to try to avoid 100 losses, but really, why have we gone through this if not to see history? If they go 63-99, it would just be a miserable season. At least if they lose 100, we could say we saw a historically bad team. This end of the season run has been historically bad, that's for sure.

At least the offense has picked up at the end. Seemed to happen about the time Chris Parmelee arrived. GO TWINS!!!

2011 Twins Game Recaps, Minnesota Twins, MLB

Games 157 & 158: Indians 8-7, Twins 2-6

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Like you didn't see that coming.

The Twins officially have the second worst season in their history and still have to win one game to avoid tying for the worst record. The Twins need to go 3-1 to avoid 100 losses, which ain't happening.

It's sad when a pitcher has a 6-0 lead in the sixth inning and you're just waiting for him to fall apart. Of course, considering all the balls in the air in the first five innings, it wasn't difficult to realize Diamond was living dangerously. Of course, it sure would be nice to get your best reliever in the game before you blow a six-run lead. It also would help if the Twins would stop running themselves out of innings (or at least scoring position).

In the first game, the Twins ended a nine-game streak of scoring at least three runs after scoring two runs or fewer in seven of their previous nine games. Of course, a lot of good the extra offense did them as the Twins went 1-8 in each nine-game stretch. At least the most recent nine have been more entertaining (and more painful).

Stat of the day: Ben Revere had six doubles in 451 career at-bats before getting three doubles in the doubleheader.

2011 Twins Game Logs, Minnesota Twins, MLB

Game 151: Indians at Twins

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Masterson vs. Pavano

Don't blink. This could go quick. Pavano has pitched well against his former team and Masterson is facing the Twins, so don't expect much offense.

The Twins need to go 4-8 to avoid 100 losses. I'm not sure it really matters, but maybe it could motivate the Twins to show a little more inspired play. They also need to go 2-10 to avoid the Twins' worst record. Fortunately, the franchise record of 113 losses (in 154 games!!) is safe. The Twins need to go winless and finish the season with 19 consecutive losses to have the Twins' worst record all to themselves. Doesn't seem all that unlikely at this point.

Some other races to look at: Can Benson set the Twins' rookie record for stolen bases? Can the Twins have a game with no players from the Opening Day lineup play in the game? Who will have the worst batting average: Butera, Rivera or Tosoni? Will any Twin get to 20 home runs (Cuddyer's at 18, Valencia 15)? Will anyone get to 70 RBIs (Valencia at 69, Cuddyer 65)?

GO TWINS!!!

2011 Twins Game Recaps, Minnesota Twins, MLB

Game 150: Indians 10, Cuddy & the Kids 4

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Stop me if you've heard this before, but the Twins lost again to extend another losing streak. This one is at seven and it is the sixth losing streak of at least six games this season. The Twins are 0-40 in those losing streaks and 59-51 the rest of the time. I imagine that's not all that unusual for teams this bad, but the Twins have been real streaky this season. It's hard to remember that they actually won eight games in a row at one point. Then again, the Twins haven't won as much as three in a row since July 5, which happened to be the one game I attended.

But this time of year for a last-place team isn't about wins and losses, especially when you only have one member of your Opening Day lineup available to play and only one member of your original five-man rotation still pitching in the rotation. And let's face it. Any wins now only hurt the Twins' draft position and have no real tangible benefit. It's just about pride now.

This is about seeing the kids playing and seeing some hope for the future and the last two games have been good in that sense. On Friday, it was Joe Benson showing why he's considered by some to be the Twins' top prospect that could actually make the team next year when he went 4-for-4 with three extra-base hits against a very tough right-hander in Ubaldo Jiminez. In this game, it was Chris Parmelee showing why the Twins took him in the first round of the draft, going 3-for-3 with a walk and his first-career home run. Parmelee is now batting .357 in the bigs and more impressively has five walks and just four strikeouts.

2011 Twins Game Recaps, Minnesota Twins

2011 Game 149 Recap: Indians 7, Twins 6

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Weather: 56 degrees, overcast
Wind: 14 mph, R to L
Time: 2:58
Attendance: 37,942

Box Score
Fangraphs

Yeah, it was just like old times. Jim Thome steps to the plate at Target Field and belts a solo shot, career home run #603. Only this time he was wearing an Indians uniform again, Joe Nathan was trying to keep the game even, and the home run made the difference between a potential come-from-behind Twins win and another Twins loss. So it goes.

Kevin Slowey had another poor outing for the Twins, going just four innings and giving up five runs on seven hits. But what the hell, this is the time of year when everything heads south, so we really shouldn't expect any different.

The one bright spot in the game for the Twins was Joe Benson, who damn near hit for the cycle and provided a good chunk of the team's offense, scoring three runs with a 4-for-4 night. Benson has doubled in four of his last five games, and six of his nine hits in the Majors have gone for extra bases. His four hits were the most for a Twins rookie since Danny Valencia did it last year.

2011 Twins Game Logs, Minnesota Twins, MLB

Game 146: Twins at Tigers

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Ten years ago last week, we moved into our current home. I know this because 10 years ago today I was waiting for my DirecTV to be installed when my wife called to tell me to turn on the radio. I may have been the last person in the country to know about the Twin Towers. Let's honor those who lost their lives and celebrate those who survived and helped others survive and maybe share a few of our own memories of that day. As for the game ...

Scott Diamond vs. Doug Fister

Maybe the Twins can fist it off Fister, but I won't be holding my breath.

Diamond had the benefit of unfamiliarity against the Tigers in his last start against them. I don't expect it to go so well the second time. Then again, he did better against the White Sox the second time around, so you never know.

Normally, this would be a great doubleheader day with the Twins scheduled to start about three hours before a certain other Minnesota team kicks off its season (literally). It's really sad that for decades the Twins have tried to surpass the Vikings in popularity and even with two world championships, they still haven't done it. However, they had a golden opportunity to get a leg up on the Vikes, who bumbled through a controversial and disappointing season while the Twins were coming off a wonderful 94-win debut season for spectacular Target Field. All the Twins did was puke all over that field and their fans while the Vikings traded for Donovan McNabb and signed their most popular player to a 7-year, $100 million contract, with only just over a third of it guaranteed.

Hey, Ziggy. You wouldn't want to buy a baseball team as well?

2011 Twins Game Recaps, Minnesota Twins, MLB

Game 145: Tigers 3, Twins 2

Such is the way of things for the Twins. They finally get some good pitching and they can't score enough to win. I would make a joke about the Gophers' abomination today, but it doesn't seem right after Coach Kill's seizure on the sidelines. I guess his honeymoon period will last at least another week.

At least Joe Benson finally got his first hit, but then promptly threw it away by getting picked off on the old fake-to-third and throw-to-first play to help turn a first-and-third and no outs into no runs. If the Twins get a run there, they probably have Joe Nathan on the ninth to protect a one-run lead. Of course, if they got the four runs they scored yesterday in today's game instead, they probably win and would be looking for a series win tomorrow.

Oh well. That is what the Twins have to deal with with so many injured or traded away. At least they're getting an idea of what the young players can do and what holes they need to fill in the future.

Great job by Swarzak, who gave up just two runs in six innings with six Ks and two walks. He could end up being pretty useful as a minimum-wage pitcher. The rookie callups, Benson and Parmelee, reached based four times in 8 PAs. The rest of the team reached base four times in 24 PAs and that includes Mauer reaching 3 times in 4 PAs, which means the other six guys were 1-for-20. Yikes!