All posts by sean

2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game 99: Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins

181 Comments

Max Scherzer vs Brian Duensing

I was hoping to be able to write about the Twins tying the White Sox for third place, but that is going to have to wait until tomorrow. Instead, let's investigate the non-Verlander pitchers. Verlander is 13-5 for the season, but the Tigers are 14-8 in games started by him. Makes sense. Especially since he has yet to throw fewer than 100 pitches in a game this year. He only had three last year and five the year before.

Anyway, that leaves the rest of the Tiger staff at 38-38. Tonight's starter, Scherzer, is only 10-5 but the Tigers are 13-7 in his starts despite his mediocre 4.53 ERA. The offense has also scored 5.2 runs/game for him. Note to Duensing: don't let the Tigers score that many runs. Note to Twins offense: despite Scherzer's ERA, he has a decent FIP and pretty good xFIP, so practice some patience.

2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game 91: Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins

289 Comments

Luke Hochevar vs Nick Blackburn

This has to be a perfect way to start the second half for the Twins. First, a warm-up against the Royals. Four games, more than enough to find the mojo and remind everyone about owning the AL Central. Then, taking on the first place Indians with another four game series. After that, yet another four game series against the other first place team, the Tigers.

I had some stuff written about the four consecutive series against AL Central, breaking down some possibilities. Someone decided to steal it for the game recap though. Instead, I'll close with Win Twins!

2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game 87: Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox

312 Comments

Nick Blackburn vs Gavin Floyd

The last time the Twins have lost a series against Chicago was May 19-21, 2009. There was a two game split on May 11-12, 2010, but there's no doubt the Twins would have won the series if given the chance. Overall, the Twins are .732 against the White Sox from 2009 through today.

Blackburn has done his part this year, abusing the White Sox with a 0.61 ERA in 14.2 innings. His FIP is probably quite ugly though, since he struck out only two while walking five. Could you try to keep the ratio above two one today?

2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game 80: Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins

251 Comments

Yovani Gallardo vs Francisco Liriano

I think the Yankees just own every Midwest team. The Brewers swept the Twins but were then swept by the Yankees. They scored a meager four runs compared to the 22 by the Yankees over the three games. Which leads to somewhat interesting interleague records for the Twins:

Twins away record against the NL: 1-8
Twins home record against the NL: 5-1

Just where the Twins want them. Sweep time!

2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game 74: Twins at Brewers

256 Comments

Scott Baker vs Randy Wolf

One thing that jumped out at me as I perused Light Rail's B-R page was his strikeout rate: 8.6 K/9. What? It did increase from 7.3 in 2009 to 7.8 in 2010, but I wasn't expecting another 0.8 jump. However, the season is just shy of 50% complete and so, how much of the increase is real? Fortunately, that was recently answered.

What we want is the K/(PA-IBB-HBP)* line, and that says at 126 denominator units, 50% is the player's ability and 50% is the mean. Baker has 369 PAs, which means 74.5% of the 8.6 K/9 is him while the other 25.5% would be regression to the mean. The mean we want would be Baker's historical performance with however much regression is needed.

Taking the last three years, Baker has 2240 PAs, which means we need 94.7% of those three years and 5.3% league average. Baker's three year average for those three years is 7.5 K/9, which is reasonably close to the league average of 6.8. Let's just use 100% Baker. More rounding error.

Putting it all together means the best estimate for his talent right now is 8.3 K/9. Combined with the miniscule (0.09) increase in his BB/9 rate equals good things for his results. His xFIP so far is easily his best yet and his FIP is slightly better than from 2008. Finally, an ace!

* I'm calling these PAs from now on, despite it actually not being a plate appearance. He has one intentional walk and four hit batters, so it's basically rounding error anyway.

2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game 68: San Diego Padres at Minnesota Twins

248 Comments

Clayton Richard vs Brian Duensing

Jake Peavy with White Sox: 3.3 fWAR for $25.067 million, with $21 million more guaranteed.
Clayton Richard with Padres: 2.8 fWAR for $0.746 million.
I hear Peavy did quite well in his last rehab start though.

The Padres rank dead last in runs scored per game. The Twins next stop, the Giants, rank second to last, a smidgen less than the Mariners. Both have good pitching, although it's helped one more than the other.

Playing well over last two weeks: check
Playing a weaker league: check
Time to take back first place move above .500!

2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game 56: Twins at Royals

88 Comments

Carl Pavano v Danny Duffy.

Pavano seems to be repeating his 2009. Unfortunately, the Twins are the recipients of the poor performance.

Duffy decided to return to baseball in 2010 and racked up some frequent flyer miles proving himself. Seven games with the Rafters (which B-R doesn't even list and I can't corroborate), two games with a rookie team (Arizona), two more with another rookie team (Idaho), three games at A+ (Delaware), and finally seven games at AA (Arkansas).

He averaged more than a strikeout per inning in the minors while walking three per nine innings. The strikeouts followed him, but the control lagged some. The number of free passes issued has monotonically decreased. I don't expect the Twins to change that.