All posts by sean

2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game 74: Twins at Brewers

256 Comments

Scott Baker vs Randy Wolf

One thing that jumped out at me as I perused Light Rail's B-R page was his strikeout rate: 8.6 K/9. What? It did increase from 7.3 in 2009 to 7.8 in 2010, but I wasn't expecting another 0.8 jump. However, the season is just shy of 50% complete and so, how much of the increase is real? Fortunately, that was recently answered.

What we want is the K/(PA-IBB-HBP)* line, and that says at 126 denominator units, 50% is the player's ability and 50% is the mean. Baker has 369 PAs, which means 74.5% of the 8.6 K/9 is him while the other 25.5% would be regression to the mean. The mean we want would be Baker's historical performance with however much regression is needed.

Taking the last three years, Baker has 2240 PAs, which means we need 94.7% of those three years and 5.3% league average. Baker's three year average for those three years is 7.5 K/9, which is reasonably close to the league average of 6.8. Let's just use 100% Baker. More rounding error.

Putting it all together means the best estimate for his talent right now is 8.3 K/9. Combined with the miniscule (0.09) increase in his BB/9 rate equals good things for his results. His xFIP so far is easily his best yet and his FIP is slightly better than from 2008. Finally, an ace!

* I'm calling these PAs from now on, despite it actually not being a plate appearance. He has one intentional walk and four hit batters, so it's basically rounding error anyway.

2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game 68: San Diego Padres at Minnesota Twins

248 Comments

Clayton Richard vs Brian Duensing

Jake Peavy with White Sox: 3.3 fWAR for $25.067 million, with $21 million more guaranteed.
Clayton Richard with Padres: 2.8 fWAR for $0.746 million.
I hear Peavy did quite well in his last rehab start though.

The Padres rank dead last in runs scored per game. The Twins next stop, the Giants, rank second to last, a smidgen less than the Mariners. Both have good pitching, although it's helped one more than the other.

Playing well over last two weeks: check
Playing a weaker league: check
Time to take back first place move above .500!

2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game 56: Twins at Royals

88 Comments

Carl Pavano v Danny Duffy.

Pavano seems to be repeating his 2009. Unfortunately, the Twins are the recipients of the poor performance.

Duffy decided to return to baseball in 2010 and racked up some frequent flyer miles proving himself. Seven games with the Rafters (which B-R doesn't even list and I can't corroborate), two games with a rookie team (Arizona), two more with another rookie team (Idaho), three games at A+ (Delaware), and finally seven games at AA (Arkansas).

He averaged more than a strikeout per inning in the minors while walking three per nine innings. The strikeouts followed him, but the control lagged some. The number of free passes issued has monotonically decreased. I don't expect the Twins to change that.

2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game 43: Minnesota Twins at Arizona Diamondbacks

183 Comments

Brian Duensing vs Ian Kennedy

And now begins the interleague preview.

The Twins have played the Diamondbacks three times. The most recent series was here in 2008, sweeping them. Livan out pitched Webb for the win in game 1. The Twins visited Arizona in 2005, winning the series 2-1, and again in 2004 with the same results. Their sole loss was a complete game by Randy Johnson. I guess Silva, Aaron Fultz, and Joe Roa weren't a good match against him. In 2003, the Twins lost the series 1-2, with the sole win coming from spot starter Santana. It was his final start for a month before he was permanently installed in the rotation.

Following the clear progression, I predict a sweep.

2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game 36: Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins

309 Comments

Ricky Romero vs Carl Pavano.

Number of teams to make the postseason since 1995 that started at 12-23: one. The previous team to do that was the Blue Jays in 1989. In 1981, the Royals made the postseason with a worse record after 35 games, but unless the players plan on striking for a third of the season, I don't think it's a good model. After that, just one more team* did it: the 1974 Pirates.

It doesn't look good my friends.

* Caveat: I only checked for the years since divisional play started.

2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game 30: Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox

169 Comments

Scott Baker vs Tim Wakefield

Knuckleball pitchers may be ageless, but Wakefield's time machine finally broke. Nonetheless, I think he will have a long leash in today's game. Knowing the Twins' offense, they might not be able to score enough runs in a single inning to knock him out of the game and expose the tired bullpen. Instead, they will have time to perfect the single/walk, steal, sacrifice, sacrifice (fly) strategy.

The Red Sox used their entire bullpen for Wednesday's game, including Wakefield, for a 13 inning game in which the starter lasted 4.1 innings. Naturally, the starter in yesterday's game also lasted a mere four innings, but it was mop-up time after that and anyone important was saved for today's game. The Sox have yet to top .500 after failing two previous times. Hopefully the Twins don't notice the "Red" part and treat these Sox like their bleached brethren.

2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game 25: Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals

298 Comments

Scott Baker vs Bruce Chen.

Well that sucked. It does amuse me that the team most often picked to win the division is doing just as well as the Twins. I think only Detroit is doing roughly as expected, though the Royals are very quickly returning to their expected level.

This is an awful streak and it's magnified by starting the season with it. If only there was some way to look at streaks within previous, full seasons...

First, some notes about this season's streak to compare to previous miserable streaks. The Twins have scored 77 runs and given up 124 runs, which comes out to 3.2 scored versus 5.2 against.

In 2010, there was a period when the Twins didn't play particularly well in the middle of the season. Concerning, yes, but no hysterics about it. Taking a look at 2010, I note that from games 85 to 94, seven times were the Twins 9-15 over the previously played 24 games (e.g. games 62-85 the first time). They also were 8-16 once and 10-14 twice. During the 8-16 stretch, they scored 109 runs and gave up 131 runs. That's 4.5 runs/game and 5.5 runs/game respectively. In terms of wins it was worse, but the run differential is just shy of one run a game instead of two runs per games.

Let's try another year that also started poorly but ended up okay. Like 2006. Oh look! They also started 9-15 and hovered around 10-14 for quite a few consecutive 24 game stretches. That was a frustrating early 46 games. Anyway, they scored 96 runs and gave up 148 runs to start the season. And that's with a True Ace anchoring the staff. That's an even 4 runs/game scored and 6.2 runs/game given up. And it got worse! From games 3-26, those figures were 3.7 and 6.1 respectively.

Going earlier, I see in 2003, the Twins were as bad as 6-18 with similar run differentials to this season's differential. Games 72-95 for instance they were 7-17, scored 79 runs and gave up 137.

Now, I am not saying things are going to go just like 2006 and the Twins will have a historically great second half of the season or they finally put some pitcher into the rotation and he pitches quite all right. Instead, awful stretches happen during seasons that otherwise end well. Truthfully, I do not foresee any big changes like in 2003 or 2006 that will dramatically alter the team's true talent level. They could continue to suffer from injuries and finish worst in the division, it happens, but that's a worst case scenario even now and acting like it's fated to be is, well, stupid.

2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game 20: Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins

19 Comments

Carmona vs Duensing.

It's been a busy week. I think I have the core features in place now, so it's on to other things. Like how the site looks. That will have to come from someone else.

In the meantime, time for the best team in the AL to take on the near worst team in the league. Unfortunately, they aren't in the order I wanted at the beginning of the season.