I figured I should write at least something on my obsession with the Twins home run record chase, but before I do, I would like to point out that the Twins staff has only allowed 195 homers this year. That's second in the AL behind Tampa, who just allowed one to the Yanks in two games. In fact, let's look at the AL playoff teams (as of Wednesday):
Rays: 177
Twins: 195
A's: 200
Indians: 200
Astros: 226
Yankees: 244
So the Yankees have barely scored more than the Twins, give up way more homers, and have a worse ERA+. So why have the Yankees been better? The Yankees have given up 45 unearned runs. The Twins, 74. Eeeg. If the Twins lose in the playoffs because of their atrocious defense...
Anyway, back to bombas.
The Twins are up two homers with three games to go. Neither team is really playing for anything. For the Yankees to get home field, they'd have to sweep while the Astros get swept. Not likely. So it's reasonable to think both teams will be resting players. The Twins will be matching up Astudillo and Miller and Torreyes with the likes of Romine and Estrada and Wade. And, honestly, probably Giancarlo Stanton, who needs some reps before the playoffs. The Twins will likely play Schoop a lot, who if he can do anything it's hit bombs in low-pressure situations.
The Yanks are playing the Rangers, who have given up 17 more homers than the Royals. The Rangers also play in a more homer friendly park.
Let's look at projected starters and their HR/9:
Rangers: Palumbo (2.6), TBD (?), Lynn (0.9)
Royals: Skoglund (1.5), Sparkman (2.1), Lopez (1.8)
I think I've finally come to the point where I'll be okay if the Twins don't get this record. Clinching the division has helped for sure. Though no promises if the Twins are leading by three homers on Sunday and the Yankees hit four.
Every time I've bitched to nibbish about the Yankees hitting homers, he has replied with "Don't worry, they've got this."
Om.
