Hope Springs Eternal

There was a discussion the other day on the upcoming Twins seasons and the mood was cautious at best. While certainly a 99-loss season leaves plenty of reason for pessimism, this is still the time for hope for better things for our favorite team. Of course, just getting back to .500 would be a large improvement. So, I thought I would look at what the Twins have done to improve and how this team is looking to start the season.

First off, here's a look at least season's primary starting 9 vs. who we expect to be the starting nine guys in the lineup for Opening Day this year.

C: Drew Butera                  Joe Mauer

1B: Justin Morneau         Chris Parmelee

2B: Alexi Casilla                Alexi Casilla

SS: Tsuyoshi Nishioka   Jamey Carroll

3B: Danny Valencia         Danny Valencia

LF: Delmon Young           Josh Willingham

CF: Ben Revere                  Denard Span

RF: Michael Cuddyer      Ryan Doumit

DH: Jim Thome                  Justin Morneau

Replacing Butera and Nishi with actual major league players are both big steps forward and I feel like the Twins adequately replaced any real losses from last year, essentially replacing Cuddyer and Thome with Willingham and Doumit, who give the Twins better roster flexibility. That lineup looks very deep and could provide a lot of big innings. Now here's the expected bench:

Revere

Hughes

Plouffe

Burroughs

This may be the best bench the Twins have had in quite some time. It is the first time I can remember the Twins have gone without a quintessential utility infielder (ala Denny Hocking or Nick Punto). Of course, it could be argued that the Twins start two utility infielders in their middle infield, but that is why it is a good idea to go with more offense on the bench. Revere will be an ideal pinch runner/defensive replacement for both Willingham and Doumit (or other possible RFs, such as Plouffe or Parmelee). Hughes and Plouffe provide right-handed pop off the bench for a team with a lefty-heavy starting lineup. Burroughs provides an experienced left-handed pinch hitter for Carroll or even Casilla or Valencia and a left-handed backup to Valencia. The lineup provides some great options for when facing pitchers with large platoon splits:

vs. Lefty                    vs. Righty

Span CF                     Span CF
Carroll SS                 Carroll SS
Mauer C                     Mauer C
Willingham LF        Mourneau DH
Doumit DH               Doumit RF
Valencia 3B              Parmelee 1B
Plouffe RF                 Burroughs 3B
Hughes 1B                  Casilla 2B
Casilla 2B                   Revere LF

I think there's plenty of reason to be optimistic about the offense, with the key being the health of Span, Mauer and Morneau, but I think the biggest concern for Twins fans are about the pitching staff. But I think there is reason to be optimistic there. First of all, the starting staff is primarily unchanged from the 94-win 2010 team, with Jason Marquis replacing Kevin Slowey. The key will be Liriano getting back to 2010 form and Scott Baker staying healthy. Liriano has been brilliant this spring with excellent control and more strikeouts than innings pitched. Baker had a sore elbow slow him and will start the season on the DL for a week or so, but he did the same in 2010 and ended up pitching over 170 innings. If Liriano is your No. 1 and Baker is No. 2 and you have innings eaters like Pavano and Marquis at the back of the rotation then you should do pretty well, especially if you have an offense to support them.

The bullpen was unquestionably the biggest problem in 2011. The good news is that only Glen Perkins, one of the few highlights for the Twins, Matt Capps and the durable and flexible Anthony Swarzak return. Alex Burnett might return as well, but that is looking less and less likely (thankfully). Duensing has returned to the role he excelled in in 2010, so the Twins have an experienced (and hopefully reliable) closer and a top setup man along with a solid lefty and swing man. The questions remain with the rest, but Matt Maloney has been great this spring and Jared Burton has been solid and both have major league experience. The best reason for optimism is the Twins have specialized in making a good bullpen out of a lot of question marks. Hopefully, they'll continue to evaluate bullpen options on results instead of radar guns.

With so many health questions, the Plan Bs for each position is very important for this team. The biggest improvement in this area was signing Doumit to be Mauer's backup, giving the Twins a guy who would not only be far better than Butera, but better than the average catcher. J.R. Towles has hit well this spring and the former top prospect could be a solid backup catcher if needed. Morneau is another big question. The Twins already have Parmelee at first, and of course anyone can DH. If Morneau does go down, Doumit can be the primary DH, which is what he originally was signed to be, and Plouffe and Revere can share time in RF. Span is another concern, but Revere has shown himself to be a brilliant CF and Joe Benson is another option in AAA.  The middle infield depth another health concern since Carroll is 38 and Casilla has never lasted through an entire season as a starter, but Brian Dozier has had a great spring and most reports have him the Twins' best defensive shortstop right now. My guess is he would be the starter for the Twins if Terry Ryan hadn't already promised that job to Carroll when he signed him this offseason. If either starter in the middle infield goes down, the other would play second and Dozier would most likely be called up to play shortstop. Luke Hughes is another option to play second base with the other starter playing shortstop. Even if Valencia goes down, the Twins could platoon Burroughs and Hughes there.

The pitching depth is more of a concern, but Liam Hendricks looks ready to be a solid major league starter and may even be an improvement over Marquis or Blackburn. Anthony Swarzak also could be a decent fifth starter if needed. Kyle Waldrop and Carlos Gutierrez provide hope for bullpen help this summer, although Waldrop will start the season on the DL with arm problems. Of course, the Twins provded in 2010 that its not difficult to find middle relief help during the season.

The reality is, the Twins won't be able to replace Mauer or Morneau, so a lot of the team's success hinges on their health. But the good news is both appear to be healthy at this point. Mauer is playing like pretty much every other year but 2011 and Morneau is finally hitting after an awful start to spring training. I think both are as healthy as they are going to get. I don't think they'll wear down, however the concern with Morneau is how much of a hit or jolt can he take before his concussion symptoms return. If he can play at least two-thirds of the season for the first time in three seasons, the Twins chances for a return to respectability will be greatly improved.

This Week in Twins Transactions

Actually three weeks.

Lester Oliveros was optioned to Rochester.
Deolis Guerra was optioned to Rochester.
Tyler Robertson was optioned to Rochester.
Oswaldo Arcia was optioned to Ft. Myers.
Scott Diamond was optioned to Rochester.
Darin Mastroianni was optioned to Rochester.
Aaron Thompson was assigned to minor league camp.
Steve Pearce was assigned to minor league camp.
Danny Rams was assigned to minor league camp.
Billy Killian was signed to a minor league contract.
Norberto Susini was signed to a minor league contract.
Rene Tosoni was optioned to Rochester.
Tsuyoshi Nishioka was optioned to Rochester.
Terry Doyle was returned to Charlotte.
Carlos Gutierrez was optioned to Rochester.
Luis Perdomo was assigned to minor league camp.
Jason Bulger was assgined to minor league camp.
Daryl Thompson was assigned to minor league camp.
Esmerling Vasquez was assigned to minor league camp.
P. J. Walters was assigned to minor league camp.
Chris Herrmann was assigned to minor league camp.
Dan Rohlfing was assigned to minor league camp.
Aaron Bates was assigned to minor league camp.
Wilkin Ramirez was assigned to minor league camp.
Sam Deduno was assigned to minor league camp.
Phil Dumatrait was assigned to minor league camp.
Danny Lehmann was assigned to minor league camp.
Ray Chang was assigned to minor league camp.
Matt Carson was assigned to minor league camp.
Derek Christensen was released.
Kane Holbrooks was released.
Matt Schuld was released.
Blayne Weller was released.
Dan Osterbrock was released.
Spencer Steedley was released.
Mike Tarsi was released.
Joel Zumaya was released.
Steve Pearce was released.
Jason Bulger was released.
Joe Benson was optioned to Rochester.
Jeff Manship was optioned to Rochester.
Drew Butera was optioned to Rochester.
Kyle Waldrop was placed on the fifteen day disabled list with a right elbow strain.
Deinys Suarez was released.
Dustin Martin was released.
Deolis Guerra was assigned from Rochester to New Britain.
Lester Oliveros was assigned from Rochester to New Britain.
Darin Mastroianni was assigned from Rochester to New Britain.
Chris Cates was released.
Brad Stillings was released.
Ben Tootle was released.
Tyler Koelling was released.
Roy Larson was released.
Matthew Bashore was released.
Rene Rivera was assigned to minor league camp.
Pedro Florimon was assigned to minor league camp.
Matt Rizzotti was acquired from Philadelphia for cash considerations.

 

This Week in Ex-Twins

Actually three weeks.

Arizona options David Winfree to AAA Reno.
Atlanta signs Livan Hernandez.
Baltimore assigns Willie Eyre to minor league camp.
Baltimore assigns Steve Tolleson to minor league camp.
Boston releases Carlos Silva.
Cubs assign Matt Tolbert to minor league camp.
Cleveland releases Cristian Guzman.
Cincinnati assigns Ron Mahay to minor league camp.
Colorado releases Casey Blake.
Houston releases Livan Hernandez.
Monterrey of the Mexican League activates Dan Serafini.
Mets sign Kevin Mulvey to a minor league contract.
Mets assign Chuck James to minor league camp.
Oakland assigns Jason Pridie to AAA Sacramento.
Philadelphia assigns Jeff Lanning to Class A Clearwater.
Yankees sign Steve Pearce as a free agent.
San Francisco releases Ramon Ortiz.
Texas assigns Yangervis Solarte to minor league camp.
Texas releases Joe Beimel.
Texas options Mark Hamburger to AAA Round Rock.

Happy Birthday–March 31

Bill Hallman (1867)
Jack Stivetts (1868)
Big Jeff Pfeffer (1882)
Brick Owens (1885)
Tom Sheehan (1894)
Carson Bigbee (1895)
Mule Suttles (1900)
Marv Grissom (1918)
Dave Koslo (1920)
Moises Camacho (1932)
Moose Stubing (1938)
Balvino Galvez (1964)
Chien-Ming Wang (1980)
Jeff Mathis (1983)

One of the top second basemen in the history of the Mexican League, Moises Camacho played  there from 1951-1975.  He was known as the Rogers Hornsby of Mexico.

Continue reading Happy Birthday–March 31

FMD 3/30/12: Mama Tried

After putting together my 16-title top-ten albums list last week, I felt a bit sheepish about one in particular, Merle Haggard and the Strangers' Mama Tried (1968, their third album of the year). Partly because I first heard it last October, and partly because I wasn't sure I had given it a thorough enough listen.

But this week, I took some time to listen to it this week (it's only 32 minutes — 37 with bonus traks — so I've given it a good dozen, and it's confirmed its place on that pedestal for me. Four of the twelve songs, including two well-known covers ("Folsom Prison Blues," and "Green Green Grass of Home"), talk about a convict's time in prison on a serious charge (life without parole, shot a man in Reno, about to be executed). Maybe it's just a theme he went with on a few, but in hearing the other songs about jealousy, loneliness, and a hard upbringing, I almost feel that this is a concept album, the story of a murderer, and I'm trying to decipher exactly who he killed. Two of the jealousy songs are especially chilling sung by the same man who's sings of "when they'll lead me through that door and burn my life away." He'll "always know when you've been cheating... don't forget it either," and warns his woman who's talking to the milkman and iceman that "If you don't Run 'em off, I'll swear you're cheating on me." So, did he kill his woman, someone she actually cheated on him with, or just an innocent flirting delivery man? And does the "Little Old Wine Drinker" who moved to Chicago after his woman left with another man for Florida pursue that woman, or does getting burned by her make him more jealous in a later relationship?

So, it's a concise little album, without some of the broader themes (anti-hippie, pro-Jesus, etc) that would show up over the next six albums/three years. I love concise little albums.

Musically, he and the Strangers seem to be in the sweet spot between the simpler-sounding early albums while still keeping that subtly-swinging Bakersfield sound that would again sound broader in a few years. In that way, it reminds me of OutKast's ATLiens, where Organized Noize pushed as much as they could out of a limited palette of sounds and options. (That's my fave OutKast album, fwiw.)

I may also have put this on the pedestal because it was my first Hag experience. I bought the double-album reissue of Mama Tried/Pride in What I Am back in October on my birthday. Ten days later, I went back to the record store for the three other double-album packages they had in stock. Mama Tried doesn't have most of my favorite Hag songs, but it does fit together better than anything else I've heard.

For your listening pleasure, may I present a lip-synching "performance" of the title track. If you don't dig it, disregard the review above and leave the album alone.
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxQbvSjQy9A

OK, now that you've read my ramble, share your random ten.