Late night hockey for game 2 as the Wild look to take another game in Las Vegas.
Road teams that win games 1 and 2 in the NHL playoffs win 80% of the series (79 out of 99 historically). Road teams that win game 1 and lose game 2 win 43.5% of the series (70 out of 161 historically). Unsurprisingly, it would be good to win this game. Continue reading NHL PLAYOFFS: Game 2 – Wild @ Vegas
The most successful team in Wild history (by points percentage) now begins the playoffs on the road in Las Vegas, a team that could easily be the best in the NHL this season. A lot of the predictions and previews out there has focused on the Wild's success against Vegas in the regular season, where the Wild won 5 out of 8 and only lost once in regulation. That's not nothing, and it's always better to line up against a team that doesn't feel like the overwhelming favorite (see: Avalanche, Colorado), but it's also pretty clear that the Golden Knights are an elite team, one of the best in the NHL and there will be no easy wins for the Wild in this series.
I have to be honest, I don't know how I'm expecting this series to go. All the games against Las Vegas were super exciting and fun to watch, so if we get a series full of more games like that with playoff intensity on top of it? That will be something. It's been such a fun regular season, and the road through the playoffs is soooo tough, that it's impossible to say that getting knocked out would be an unexpected disappointment. But disappointment is still the word. Continue reading NHL PLAYOFFS: Game 1 – Wild @ Vegas
MIGUEL SANO got a hit!
MIGUEL SANO got a hit late in the game!
MIGUEL SANO got a hit late in the game with a runner in scoring position!
MIGUEL SANO got a hit late in the game with a runner in scoring position and it completed the Twins comeback from 3 runs down to take the lead!
MIGUEL SANO got a hit late int he game with a runner in scoring position and it completed the Twins comeback from 3 runs down to take the lead and then he went out and pitched a scoreless inning of relief in a high-leverage spot!
Man, what they say is true. Anything really is possible.
Games this week:
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Tonight is the last game of the season between Colorado and Las Vegas, the two teams at the top of the West division. Here's what's at stake:
Of course, the team that doesn't win the division gets Minnesota in the first round. Las Vegas has already clinched home ice in the first round, but Colorado needs 3 more points to ensure that they would start the first round in Denver.
Marcus Foligno
Building off my comment in last week's Whangdoodle, let's play a guessing game. If i give you a graph that shows the Wild's xG% (all situations) in every game this season (depicted as a five-game rolling average), can you spot the point in the season where Foligno broke his ankle and missed 4 weeks? (click the image to see the answer)
If you guessed game 26, you are correct. He was out for 15 games, and when he came back the xG% quickly corrected itself to climb back over 50%.
To get some sense of the importance of xG% and its correlation to Minnesota's success, we can look at the Wild's record when they control scoring chances (xG% >55%) versus when they are significantly out-chanced (xG% <45%).
| xG% | Wild Record |
|---|---|
| xG% >55% | 17-3-1 |
| 45% < xG% < 55% | 12-5 |
| xG% <45% | 6-6-4 |
Those four losses in the top category are all memorable, and with maybe one exception, could have easily gone the other way.
To pull the whole thing together, you notice that the three groups the games were sorted into are pretty close to equally populated. When we factor in Marcus Foligno's presence, we get a different distribution
| Foligno? | Low xG% | Middle xG% | High xG% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8 | 11 | 18 |
| No | 8 | 6 | 3 |
| Total | 16 | 17 | 21 |
The last fact in all of this is that the Wild managed to end up playing six of their eight games this season against the Avalanche without Marcus Foligno in the lineup. This seems particularly relevant given the playoff scenarios that are playing out this week and how likely it is that we'll be seeing another Colorado-Minnesota playoff series soon.
Current Standings:
| Rank | Team | GP | Pts | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegas | 54 | 80 | 3 (division) |
| 2 | Colorado | 53 | 76 | 3 (R1 home ice) |
| 3 | Minnesota | 54 | 75 | 0 |
| 4 | St. Louis | 53 | 57 | #4 seed clinched |
| 5 | Arizona | 56 | 52 | eliminated |
| 6 | Los Angeles | 53 | 48 | eliminated |
| 7 | San Jose | 55 | 49 | eliminated |
| 8 | Anaheim | 56 | 43 | eliminated |
I mentioned this before, but even if the Wild don't earn another standings point, they will finish the season with the highest points percentage of any Wild season in their 20-year history.
Kirill Kaprizov Corner
27 goals in 54 games. He's 8th in the NHL in goals scored. One goal every other game hasn't been accomplished by a rookie in 15 years. (Ovechkin in '05-'06, 52G in 81GP, Svatos in '05-'06, 32G in 61GP)
51 points in 54 games. Tied for 19th in the NHL in points.
We're getting down to the end of the season, so you would understand if I said I was running a little short on Kaprizov highlights... Oh wait, the folder is still full.
I'm leaving out the highlights of his assists, because he had some beautiful passes, but goodness, he scored so much this week.
Enjoy!
HE. CANT. BE. STOPPED. pic.twitter.com/ih2gNJqUnt
— Hockey Wilderness (@hockeywildernes) May 4, 2021
Out. Of. The. Air. pic.twitter.com/JpMtDS69nh
— Hockey Wilderness (@hockeywildernes) May 6, 2021
This kid is unbelievable. pic.twitter.com/hGJ5vWZtKH
— Hockey Wilderness (@hockeywildernes) May 6, 2021
KIRILL IN OT OF COURSE! WILD WIN! pic.twitter.com/U81vAfokU7
— Hockey Wilderness (@hockeywildernes) May 8, 2021
Leaderboards
| Player | G | Player | A | Player | Pts | Player | xGAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaprizov | 27 | Greenway | 25 | Kaprizov | 51 | Kaprizov | 20.0 |
| Fiala | 20 | Kaprizov | 24 | Fiala | 40 | Eriksson Ek | 14.6 |
| Eriksson Ek | 19 | Zuccarello | 24 | Zuccarello | 35 | Spurgeon | 11.4 |
| Zuccarello | 11 | Fiala | 20 | Greenway | 31 | Sturm | 9.8 |
| Foligno/Sturm/Bonino | 10 | Spurgeon | 18 | Eriksson Ek | 30 | Fiala | 8.7 |
If Kaprizov doesn't score another goal this season, he'll finish on pace for 39.5 goals in an 82 game season. So, I think we can round that to say this was a 40-goal season.
Kaprizov is closer to Connor McDavid in xGAR (25.3) than he is to Eriksson Ek. He is 3rd in the NHL in xGAR. Anyone thinking about who will finish as the runners up to McDavid for the MVP will have to at least consider Kaprizov.
Also, raise your hand if you had Eriksson Ek down for a 20-goal season? It could happen!
Kenta Maeda v. Matthew Boyd
I feel like the Twins have faced Matthew Boyd at least once a week for the past 6 years (checking b-r, and ... yep this will be his 274th career start against Minnesota). He's coming off a start cut short by injury and a skipped turn in the rotation so he hasn't pitched since April 29.
Another Sunday means another rubber match for this series. I think a series win over the Tigers is a pretty reasonable aspiration.
I started reading Anna Karenina.
I wasn't really planning on it, but Becca Rothfeld invited people to tackle a big long book and have a discussion group with her. Well, I find Rothfeld to be interesting and someone that has a different perspective. A big novel? A group of interesting thoughtful readers? Sign me up!
And then they chose Anna Karenina.
I read the first 10 pages in high school and never really had any inclination to go back to it, but I had recently read that George Saunders book about Russian short stories. And I had enjoyed The Master and Margarita and The Idiot in recent years, so maybe Russian literature could be my thing.
I'm not sure it's my thing. I'm 550 pages in, I've got 250 to go, and it's a little bit of a slog for me. The reading group is not quite as interesting of a group as I had hoped (there are some true literature snobs in there - George Saunders is not a serious enough writer for some in this group). So now I will finish the book this month. There are parts of it that are really really good. I liked the observation someone made about how Tolstoy is pre-Freudian so he could not care less about anyone's backstory or childhood. That tickled me a bit.
Alright, what literature classics have you been accidentally roped into agreeing to read this month? Share it all below.
Want to vote for some Minnesota Wild end-of-season awards?
⚠️ Hey #mnwild Fans! We need your help! ⚠️
This Thursday (May 6), we will be giving out our fan-voted #mnwild Player Awards for the 2021 season! But in order to have fan-voted awards, we need fans to vote!
Please take 2 minutes to fill out your ballot: https://t.co/DjtveewHPw pic.twitter.com/yCbXicVnE4
— Sound the Foghorn Pod 🚨 (@SoundTheFoghorn) May 1, 2021
Games this week:
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The last four home games of the regular season. The Wild have really dominated when at home (18-5-1, .771, +29 goal differential). The only question now is whether these games will matter.
With the win over St. Louis on Saturday, the Wild have guaranteed that they will finish no lower than 3rd in the division. Getting home ice in the playoffs would require the Wild to either...
The only way these remaining games matter is if the Wild knock out two regulation wins against Vegas. Anything else means the playoffs will start on the road.
Current Standings:
| Rank | Team | GP | Pts | Magic Number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegas | 53 | 77 | 5 (division) - 2 (R1 home ice) |
| 2 | Colorado | 52 | 74 | 6 (R1 home ice) |
| 3 | Minnesota | 53 | 73 | 0 |
| 4 | St. Louis | 52 | 57 | #4 seed clinched |
| 5 | Arizona | 55 | 52 | eliminated |
| 6 | Los Angeles | 52 | 48 | eliminated |
| 7 | San Jose | 54 | 48 | eliminated |
| 8 | Anaheim | 55 | 42 | eliminated |
St. Louis will be the #4 seed and will start the playoffs against the division winner.
Kirill Kaprizov Corner
**screams**
.@KaprizovKirill sends the game to OT! pic.twitter.com/3RRpovRQDm
— NHL GIFs (@NHLGIFs) April 30, 2021
Kirill is playing ministicks with Spurgeon and his kids. I am dying. pic.twitter.com/KvfNnCV60r
— Hockey Wilderness (@hockeywildernes) May 3, 2021
Leaderboards
| Player | G | Player | A | Player | Pts | Player | xGAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaprizov | 27 | Greenway | 25 | Kaprizov | 49 | Kaprizov | 15.2 |
| Fiala | 20 | Kaprizov | 22 | Fiala | 39 | Eriksson Ek | 12.9 |
| Eriksson Ek | 19 | Zuccarello | 22 | Zuccarello | 33 | Spurgeon | 9.4 |
| Zuccarello | 11 | Fiala | 19 | Greenway | 31 | Sturm | 8.9 |
| Foligno/Sturm | 10 | Spurgeon | 18 | Eriksson Ek | 30 | Foligno | 8.8 |
Another Sunday game, another rubber match. The Royals and Twins have matching 8-run wins so far in this series. This game won't have to be all that close to be the biggest nail-biter of the series.
Jose Berrios v. Brad Keller
The fact that Alex Kirilloff is already getting comfortable against the Royals fills me with gladness. Here's to many long years of constant dingers against a division rival.
Games this week:
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The first Wild-Blues games this year were postponed due to the outbreak of COVID in the Wild roster. One later meeting ended up getting pushed back due to Minneapolis curfews during the Chauvin trial and the protests of other police killings of black men. Finally, the Avalanche had a COVID outbreak and needed to reschedule some games against St. Louis, so the Wild-Blues games got pushed back one more time and consolidated at the end of the season schedule. So here we are. The Wild now have 9 games remaining, and 5 of them are against St. Louis.
It's been a strange season.
If the Wild win any one of those remaining five games against St. Louis, they will ensure that they finish above the Blues in the final standings, and can finish no lower than third in the division.
Current Standings:
| Rank | Team | GP | Pts | Magic Number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegas | 50 | 74 | 0 |
| 2 | Colorado | 49 | 70 | 0 |
| 3 | Minnesota | 50 | 68 | 0 |
| 4 | St. Louis | 49 | 53 | 6 |
| 5 | Arizona | 52 | 50 | - |
| 6 | San Jose | 51 | 45 | - |
| 7 | Los Angeles | 49 | 44 | - |
| 8 | Anaheim | 52 | 39 | eliminated |
The three teams at the top have all clinched playoff spots and now are only playing for the opportunity not to have to face one of the other two good teams in the West.
(Quick reminder - the first two rounds of the Stanley Cup playoffs this year are series within the divisions. #1 in the West plays #4 in the West, while #2 plays #3 in the first round. Once the four divisions each have a playoff champion, they will be seeded and continue with the semifinal and final round of the playoffs).
Given the huge disparity between teams 1-3 and teams 4-8 in this division, the #1 seed is a pretty enticing reward. However, Minnesota needs a lot of things to go right to be near the #1 seed when this all shakes out.
Relevant games remaining for the #1 seed:
COLORADO @ VEGAS (April 28)
VEGAS @ MINNESOTA (May 3)
VEGAS @ MINNESOTA (May 5)
COLORADO @ VEGAS (May 10)
Las Vegas - 5 other games (2 home, 3 away - 2 ARI, 2 STL, 1 SJ)
Colorado - 8 other games (4 home, 4 away - 4 SJ, 4 LA)
Minnesota - 7 other games (5 home, 2 away - 5 STL, 2 ANA)
Unless the Kings or Sharks get really hot really fast, I don't see how Minnesota catches both teams. Here's a scenario that puts the Wild in first place:
MIN -- 8-1 (81 points)
LV -- 5-4 (80 points)
COL -- 7-3 (80 points)
Las Vegas as a .500 team and Colorado dropping multiple games to San Jose and/or LA just doesn't seem likely. Not to mention a projected 8-1 record doesn't leave much room for error.
Kirill Kaprizov Corner
Scoring when he's the only Wild player in the offensive zone? Yep.
19th of the year for Kirill Kaprizov and that's a new @mnwild rookie record! pic.twitter.com/LMXef82CBz
— NHL (@NHL) April 22, 2021
Doing horrible things to this Kings defenseman? Check
(Watch his hips on this goal. Kaprizov convinces the D-man that he's going to try and cut to the middle by turning his hips without changing the direction he's moving. As soon as the defenseman slows to cut off that angle, it's a quick puck between the legs and turn on the jets to get to the net. It's like the anti-Shakira move. It's so pretty.)
GOAL OF THE YEAR! Kirill Kaprizov is a magician. #mnwild pic.twitter.com/NqnngNtr2X
— Sound the Foghorn Pod 🚨 (@SoundTheFoghorn) April 24, 2021
Somehow finding a literal acre of space to set up and bury this Fiala pass? Check.
Kirill Kaprizov with the rocket Power play goal off a nice feed from Kevin Fiala #mnwild pic.twitter.com/50bo7MxNBR
— Alex Micheletti (@AlexMicheletti) April 25, 2021
Leaderboards
| Player | G | Player | A | Player | Pts | Player | xGAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaprizov | 23 | Greenway | 24 | Kaprizov | 43 | Kaprizov | 15.3 |
| Fiala | 19 | Kaprizov | 20 | Fiala | 37 | Eriksson Ek | 11.7 |
| Eriksson Ek | 17 | Zuccarello | 20 | Zuccarello | 31 | Spurgeon | 9.3 |
| Zuccarello | 11 | Fiala | 18 | Greenway | 30 | Sturm | 8.3 |
| Foligno | 10 | Suter/Soucy | 16 | Eriksson Ek | 27 | Fiala | 7.9 |
Things are going well! Playoff spot has been clinched with plenty of season left, now it's time to get everyone in line for the postseason and ....
Hang on. I've got the wrong Minnesota team here.
(shuffles notes)
Ah! Here we are.
Everything is terrible! They'll never make the playoffs and there's not nearly enough season left for them to turn it around and play better.
Matt Shoemaker v. Wil Crowe
Winning this series against the Pirates would be a good place to start. To do that the Twins look to Matt Shoemaker, who has been bit by the home run early in this season. Every run he has allowed so far has come from a home run, including a 3-run homer off Alcala that scored the two runners that were bequeathed by Shoemaker in his last start in Oakland.
5 home runs in 14.1 IP isn't really a recipe for success, but he's only allowed one other extra base hit. So keeping the Pirates in the yard will maybe be an indicator of how this start goes.
Wil Crowe goes for Pittsburgh. This will be the 5th appearance in his career (4th start). He's pitched 9 innings in the majors and allowed 5 home runs and walked 10 hitters. In his lone appearance this year, he faced 5 batters. Two strikeouts, a single, two walks and two wild pitches.
Fangraphs says the following about Crowe:
[Crowe] works with below-average velo, he’s a below-average athlete, he’s had health issues ... and has now struggled during his first big league trial, at age 25/26. I wonder if his fastball will gain a few tick in relief, and I think it needs to based on how loose his location of it was in 2020.
Hopefully, the Twins can feast on Crowe. And if they don't I guess I'll be ... eating ... crow?
(That was bad. I feel bad about that)
