All posts by Daneekas Ghost

2021 Twins Game Logs

Game 38: A’s @ Twins

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MIGUEL SANO got a hit!

MIGUEL SANO got a hit late in the game!

MIGUEL SANO got a hit late in the game with a runner in scoring position!

MIGUEL SANO got a hit late in the game with a runner in scoring position and it completed the Twins comeback from 3 runs down to take the lead!

MIGUEL SANO got a hit late int he game with a runner in scoring position and it completed the Twins comeback from 3 runs down to take the lead and then he went out and pitched a scoreless inning of relief in a high-leverage spot!

Man, what they say is true. Anything really is possible.

Minnesota Wild, NHL

Weekly Wild Whangdoodle: The End

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Games this week:

Tonight is the last game of the season between Colorado and Las Vegas, the two teams at the top of the West division.  Here's what's at stake:

  • Vegas wins the division with any type of win.
  • If Colorado wins in regulation, they control their own destiny for the division title, they would need two more wins (of any type) against LA to take the top spot.
  • If Colorado wins in OT/SO, Vegas wins the division with a win over San Jose on Wednesday (LV is 7-0-0 against SJ this year)

Of course, the team that doesn't win the division gets Minnesota in the first round.  Las Vegas has already clinched home ice in the first round, but Colorado needs 3 more points to ensure that they would start the first round in Denver.

Marcus Foligno

Building off my comment in last week's Whangdoodle, let's play a guessing game.  If i give you a graph that shows the Wild's xG% (all situations) in every game this season (depicted as a five-game rolling average), can you spot the point in the season where Foligno broke his ankle and missed  4 weeks? (click the image to see the answer)

If you guessed game 26, you are correct. He was out for 15 games, and when he came back the xG% quickly corrected itself to climb back over 50%.

To get some sense of the importance of xG% and its correlation to Minnesota's success, we can look at the Wild's record when they control scoring chances (xG% >55%) versus when they are significantly out-chanced (xG% <45%).

xG%Wild Record
xG% >55%17-3-1
45% < xG% < 55%12-5
xG% <45%6-6-4

Those four losses in the top category are all memorable, and with maybe one exception, could have easily gone the other way.

  1. Gibson shuts down the Wild (lost 0-1)
  2. Fleury steals a game, Talbot has off game (lost 1-5)
  3. Wild can't score against the Kings (lost 1-2)
  4. Heartbreaking loss in the last minute/OT against STL (lost 2-3, OT)

To pull the whole thing together, you notice that the three groups the games were sorted into are pretty close to equally populated.  When we factor in Marcus Foligno's presence, we get a different distribution

Foligno?Low xG%Middle xG%High xG%
Yes81118
No863
Total161721

The last fact in all of this is that the Wild managed to end up playing six of their eight games this season against the Avalanche without Marcus Foligno in the lineup. This seems particularly relevant given the playoff scenarios that are playing out this week and how likely it is that we'll be seeing another Colorado-Minnesota playoff series soon.

Current Standings:

RankTeamGPPtsPlayoff
1Vegas54803 (division)
2Colorado53763 (R1 home ice)
3Minnesota54750
4St. Louis5357#4 seed clinched
5Arizona5652eliminated
6Los Angeles5348eliminated
7San Jose5549eliminated
8Anaheim5643eliminated

I mentioned this before, but even if the Wild don't earn another standings point, they will finish the season with the highest points percentage of any Wild season in their 20-year history.

Kirill Kaprizov Corner

27 goals in 54 games.  He's 8th in the NHL in goals scored. One goal every other game hasn't been accomplished by a rookie in 15 years. (Ovechkin in '05-'06, 52G in 81GP, Svatos in '05-'06, 32G in 61GP)

51 points in 54 games.   Tied for 19th in the NHL in points.

We're getting down to the end of the season, so you would understand if I said I was running a little short on Kaprizov highlights... Oh wait, the folder is still full.

I'm leaving out the highlights of his assists, because he had some beautiful passes, but goodness, he scored so much this week.

Enjoy!

Leaderboards

PlayerGPlayerAPlayerPtsPlayerxGAR
Kaprizov27Greenway25Kaprizov51Kaprizov20.0
Fiala20Kaprizov24Fiala40Eriksson Ek14.6
Eriksson Ek19Zuccarello24Zuccarello35Spurgeon11.4
Zuccarello11Fiala20Greenway31Sturm9.8
Foligno/Sturm/Bonino10Spurgeon18Eriksson Ek30Fiala8.7

If Kaprizov doesn't score another goal this season, he'll finish on pace for 39.5 goals in an 82 game season.  So, I think we can round that to say this was a 40-goal season.

Kaprizov is closer to Connor McDavid in xGAR (25.3) than he is to Eriksson Ek.  He is 3rd in the NHL in xGAR. Anyone thinking about who will finish as the runners up to McDavid for the MVP will have to at least consider Kaprizov.

Also, raise your hand if you had Eriksson Ek down for a 20-goal season? It could happen!

2021 Twins Game Logs

Game 33: Twins @ Tigers

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Kenta Maeda v. Matthew Boyd

I feel like the Twins have faced Matthew Boyd at least once a week for the past 6 years (checking b-r, and ... yep this will be his 274th career start against Minnesota). He's coming off a start cut short by injury and a skipped turn in the rotation so he hasn't pitched since April 29.

Another Sunday means another rubber match for this series. I think a series win over the Tigers is a pretty reasonable aspiration.

First Monday Book Day

First Monday Book Day – All Unhappy Families

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I started reading Anna Karenina.

I wasn't really planning on it, but Becca Rothfeld invited people to tackle a big long book and have a discussion group with her. Well, I find Rothfeld to be interesting and someone that has a different perspective. A big novel? A group of interesting thoughtful readers? Sign me up!

And then they chose Anna Karenina.

I read the first 10 pages in high school and never really had any inclination to go back to it, but I had recently read that George Saunders book about Russian short stories. And I had enjoyed The Master and Margarita and The Idiot in recent years, so maybe Russian literature could be my thing.

I'm not sure it's my thing.  I'm 550 pages in, I've got 250 to go, and it's a little bit of a slog for me.  The reading group is not quite as interesting of a group as I had hoped (there are some true literature snobs in there - George Saunders is not a serious enough writer for some in this group).  So now I will finish the book this month. There are parts of it that are really really good. I liked the observation someone made about how Tolstoy is pre-Freudian so he could not care less about anyone's backstory or childhood. That tickled me a bit.

Alright, what literature classics have you been accidentally roped into agreeing to read this month? Share it all below.

Minnesota Wild, NHL

Weekly Wild Whangdoodle: Home Ice

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Want to vote for some Minnesota Wild end-of-season awards?

Games this week:

The last four home games of the regular season.  The Wild have really dominated when at home (18-5-1, .771, +29 goal differential).  The only question now is whether these games will matter.

With the win over St. Louis on Saturday, the Wild have guaranteed that they will finish no lower than 3rd in the division.  Getting home ice in the playoffs would require the Wild to either...

  1. Pass Vegas (6 points back, two head to head games remaining) which means Minnesota has to win almost everything and get some help.
  2. Pass the Avalanche (2 points back, no head to head games, Colorado with a game in hand) which means Minnesota has to win almost everything and get some help.

The only way these remaining games matter is if the Wild knock out two regulation wins against Vegas. Anything else means the playoffs will start on the road.

Current Standings:

RankTeamGPPtsMagic Number
1Vegas53775 (division) - 2 (R1 home ice)
2Colorado52746 (R1 home ice)
3Minnesota53730
4St. Louis5257#4 seed clinched
5Arizona5552eliminated
6Los Angeles5248eliminated
7San Jose5448eliminated
8Anaheim5542eliminated

St. Louis will be the #4 seed and will start the playoffs against the division winner.

Kirill Kaprizov Corner

**screams**

Leaderboards

PlayerGPlayerAPlayerPtsPlayerxGAR
Kaprizov27Greenway25Kaprizov49Kaprizov15.2
Fiala20Kaprizov22Fiala39Eriksson Ek12.9
Eriksson Ek19Zuccarello22Zuccarello 33Spurgeon9.4
Zuccarello11Fiala19Greenway31Sturm8.9
Foligno/Sturm10Spurgeon18Eriksson Ek30Foligno8.8
2021 Twins Game Logs

Game 26: Royals @ Twins

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Another Sunday game, another rubber match.  The Royals and Twins have matching 8-run wins so far in this series. This game won't have to be all that close to be the biggest nail-biter of the series.

Jose Berrios v. Brad Keller

The fact that Alex Kirilloff is already getting comfortable against the Royals fills me with gladness. Here's to many long years of constant dingers against a division rival.

Minnesota Wild, NHL

Weekly Wild Whangdoodle: What Now?

13 Comments

Games this week:

The first Wild-Blues games this year were postponed due to the outbreak of COVID in the Wild roster.  One later meeting ended up getting pushed back due to Minneapolis curfews during the Chauvin trial and the protests of other police killings of black men.  Finally, the Avalanche had a COVID outbreak and needed to reschedule some games against St. Louis, so the Wild-Blues games got pushed back one more time and consolidated at the end of the season schedule.  So here we are. The Wild now have 9 games remaining, and 5 of them are against St. Louis.

It's been a strange season.

If the Wild win any one of those remaining five games against St. Louis, they will ensure that they finish above the Blues in the final standings, and can finish no lower than third in the division.

Current Standings:

RankTeamGPPtsMagic Number
1Vegas50740
2Colorado49700
3Minnesota50680
4St. Louis49536
5Arizona5250-
6San Jose5145-
7Los Angeles4944-
8Anaheim5239eliminated

The three teams at the top have all clinched playoff spots and now are only playing for the opportunity not to have to face one of the other two good teams in the West.

(Quick reminder - the first two rounds of the Stanley Cup playoffs this year are series within the divisions. #1 in the West plays #4 in the West, while #2 plays #3 in the first round.  Once the four divisions each have a playoff champion, they will be seeded and continue with the semifinal and final round of the playoffs).

Given the huge disparity between teams 1-3 and teams 4-8 in this division, the #1 seed is a pretty enticing reward. However, Minnesota needs a lot of things to go right to be near the #1 seed when this all shakes out.

Relevant games remaining for the #1 seed:

COLORADO @ VEGAS (April 28)
VEGAS @ MINNESOTA (May 3)
VEGAS @ MINNESOTA (May 5)
COLORADO @ VEGAS (May 10)

Las Vegas - 5 other games (2 home, 3 away - 2 ARI, 2 STL, 1 SJ)
Colorado - 8 other games (4 home, 4 away - 4 SJ, 4 LA)
Minnesota - 7 other games (5 home, 2 away - 5 STL, 2 ANA)

Unless the Kings or Sharks get really hot really fast, I don't see how Minnesota catches both teams. Here's a scenario that puts the Wild in first place:

MIN -- 8-1 (81 points)
LV -- 5-4 (80 points)
COL -- 7-3 (80 points)

Las Vegas as a .500 team and Colorado dropping multiple games to San Jose and/or LA just doesn't seem likely. Not to mention a projected 8-1 record doesn't leave much room for error.

Kirill Kaprizov Corner

Scoring when he's the only Wild player in the offensive zone? Yep.

Doing horrible things to this Kings defenseman? Check

(Watch his hips on this goal.  Kaprizov convinces the D-man that he's going to try and cut to the middle by turning his hips without changing the direction he's moving. As soon as the defenseman slows to cut off that angle, it's a quick puck between the legs and turn on the jets to get to the net.  It's like the anti-Shakira move. It's so pretty.)

Somehow finding a literal acre of space to set up and bury this Fiala pass?  Check.

Leaderboards

PlayerGPlayerAPlayerPtsPlayerxGAR
Kaprizov23Greenway24Kaprizov43Kaprizov15.3
Fiala19Kaprizov20Fiala37Eriksson Ek11.7
Eriksson Ek17Zuccarello20Zuccarello 31Spurgeon9.3
Zuccarello11Fiala18Greenway30Sturm8.3
Foligno10Suter/Soucy16Eriksson Ek27Fiala7.9
2021 Twins Game Logs

Game 20 – Minnesota Twins v. Pittsburgh Pirates

33 Comments

Things are going well! Playoff spot has been clinched with plenty of season left, now it's time to get everyone in line for the postseason and ....

Hang on. I've got the wrong Minnesota team here.

(shuffles notes)

Ah! Here we are.

Everything is terrible! They'll never make the playoffs and there's not nearly enough season left for them to turn it around and play better.

Matt Shoemaker v. Wil Crowe

Winning this series against the Pirates would be a good place to start. To do that the Twins look to Matt Shoemaker, who has been bit by the home run early in this season.  Every run he has allowed so far has come from a home run, including a 3-run homer off Alcala that scored the two runners that were bequeathed by Shoemaker in his last start in Oakland.

5 home runs in 14.1 IP isn't really a recipe for success, but he's only allowed one other extra base hit.  So keeping the Pirates in the yard will maybe be an indicator of how this start goes.

Wil Crowe goes for Pittsburgh.  This will be the 5th appearance in his career (4th start).  He's pitched 9 innings in the majors and allowed 5 home runs and walked 10 hitters. In his lone appearance this year, he faced 5 batters. Two strikeouts, a single, two walks and two wild pitches.

Fangraphs says the following about Crowe:

[Crowe] works with below-average velo, he’s a below-average athlete, he’s had health issues ... and has now struggled during his first big league trial, at age 25/26. I wonder if his fastball will gain a few tick in relief, and I think it needs to based on how loose his location of it was in 2020.

Hopefully, the Twins can feast on Crowe.  And if they don't I guess I'll be ... eating ... crow?

(That was bad. I feel bad about that)

Minnesota Wild, NHL

Weekly Wild Whangdoodle: Hotel California

36 Comments

Trade Deadline News:

...

...

Games this week:

On the road to finish off the season series against all three of these teams. It doesn't look like any of these three are going to make the playoffs, so this is Minnesota's last trip to California until next year.

Current Standings:

RankTeamGPPtsMagic Number
1Vegas47700
2Colorado45660
3Minnesota47650
4Arizona484722
5St. Louis454618
6San Jose4741-
7Los Angeles4540-
8Anaheim4835-

5-2 win over the Coyotes

The power play was 3 for 3 in this one and is as good now as it was bad earlier in the year.  The power play shooting percentage has reached an inflection point and is moving toward the league average (the median NHL power play shooting percentage is 14%, the Wild season power play shooting percentage is 11%, and is 14% once you remove the first 10 games of the season).

Power play shooting percentage over the 5 games preceding this weekend - 31.3% (10 goals on 32 shots).

Two wins over the Sharks

The fourth line was the story here. Bonino-Sturm-Parise combined to score 6 of Minnesota's 13 goals this week.

Bonino had 6 points, Parise had 4, and Sturm got a goal and an assist.  It was amazing how much this line controlled play when they were on the ice.  Zach Parise had a really good couple of games, and immediately all the podcasts and Russo articles and everything rushed to recognize his fourth line contributions.

I'm interested to observe how Evason's doghouse works, because there are clearly players that he doesn't give the benefit of the doubt (Nico Sturm - who's been really good and still plays fourth line when he's not scratched).  Parise was in trouble with Evason earlier in the year and I wonder how long it will take to see Zach on the power play again.

Kirill Kaprizov Corner

Leaderboards

PlayerGPlayerAPlayerPtsPlayerxGAR
Kaprizov22Greenway22Kaprizov41Eriksson Ek11.5
Fiala17Kaprizov19Fiala32Kaprizov10.6
Eriksson Ek15Zuccarello19Zuccarello29Spurgeon7.7
Zuccarello10Suter16Greenway 28Brodin7.2
Foligno9Fiala/Soucy15Eriksson Ek25Sturm7.2

 

Minnesota Wild, NHL

Weekly Wild Whangdoodle: The Middle

18 Comments

Games this week:

With the two games just played against the Blues, the Wild have begun a three week stretch where they play only the middle part of the division. 5 more against St. Louis, 3 against San Jose, 3 against Arizona, and 1 against Los Angeles will take us into May.

This week all the games are at home (Wild have a 14-4 home record), so hopefully that bodes well.

Current Standings:

RankTeamGPPtsMagic Number
1Colorado43645
2Vegas42609
3Minnesota415316
4St. Louis424425
5Arizona4443-
6San Jose4240-
7Los Angeles4238-
8Anaheim4435-

Two-game split with the Avalanche

The season series with the Avalanche is all done.  The Wild went 3-5 with one of those wins coming in overtime.  I think that's a pretty reasonable outcome for Minnesota - hard to expect much more than that against a team that's as good as Colorado.  Goal differential across the season series was +6 for Colorado (31-25).  The Wild just weren't able to shut them down the way they do just about every other team.

OpponentGA/GGF/G
Colorado3.883.13
Rest of the Division2.382.91

The power play really took off in this two-game set (6 goals on 20 shots), and showed how a successful power play can really help a team be competitive.  The Wild scored 6 power play goals in two games, compared to the Avalanche's 3, which made the first game (a 5-4 loss) look better on the scoreboard than it was, and helped make the second game an 8-3 laugher instead of a much closer contest.

I'm trying not to draw too many conclusions from that super-fun explosion of goals on Wednesday night, but I will note this: Colorado's goaltending is almost completely dependent on Grubauer. They just traded to add Devan Dubnyk, which changes very little in this regard. If Grubauer is bad or unavailable, the Avalanche are a much easier team to play against. Keep that in mind if Minnesota-Colorado happens in the post-season.

Two losses to the Blues

The Wild have not been as good on the road (10-9-3 road record). And considering how badly they got blown out in Friday's game (losing 9-1), they really shouldn't be able to complain about missing out on points.  But ... giving up the tying goal in the final minute, and the game-winner in the final seconds of OT hurts quite a  bit.

Kirill Kaprizov Corner

If you wanted to, at the :03 second mark of this video, you could get really mad at the NHL for deciding that cross checks to the back away from the play are never ever penalties. Or you could admire Kaprizov's ability to find space (both Colorado defenders skated by him while he was down and apparently forgot about him?)

Or both. I can't tell you what to do.

Here he is again, sneaking behind an Avalanche defenseman to find just a touch of space and score.

Even when they notice him, he still manages to find a way to make it work.

He's going to win the Calder trophy as rookie of the year.  He remains first in rookie goals and points. He's got the most ice-time of any rookie forward, he's third in power-play points by rookies even though the Wild power play wasn't allowed to score for the first half of the season.

He's great. Tune in just to watch him. I'm telling you what to do, because I can.

Leaderboards

PlayerGPlayerAPlayerPtsPlayerGAR
Kaprizov16Greenway19Kaprizov35Foligno7.3
Fiala14Kaprizov19Fiala26Kaprizov7
Eriksson Ek13Zuccarello16Greenway24Rask6.7
Zuccarello8Suter14Zuccarello24Eriksson Ek6.6
Rask / Foligno7Soucy / Fiala12Eriksson Ek20Soucy6.3