Late night hockey for game 2 as the Wild look to take another game in Las Vegas.
Road teams that win games 1 and 2 in the NHL playoffs win 80% of the series (79 out of 99 historically). Road teams that win game 1 and lose game 2 win 43.5% of the series (70 out of 161 historically). Unsurprisingly, it would be good to win this game. Continue reading NHL PLAYOFFS: Game 2 – Wild @ Vegas
The most successful team in Wild history (by points percentage) now begins the playoffs on the road in Las Vegas, a team that could easily be the best in the NHL this season. A lot of the predictions and previews out there has focused on the Wild's success against Vegas in the regular season, where the Wild won 5 out of 8 and only lost once in regulation. That's not nothing, and it's always better to line up against a team that doesn't feel like the overwhelming favorite (see: Avalanche, Colorado), but it's also pretty clear that the Golden Knights are an elite team, one of the best in the NHL and there will be no easy wins for the Wild in this series.
I have to be honest, I don't know how I'm expecting this series to go. All the games against Las Vegas were super exciting and fun to watch, so if we get a series full of more games like that with playoff intensity on top of it? That will be something. It's been such a fun regular season, and the road through the playoffs is soooo tough, that it's impossible to say that getting knocked out would be an unexpected disappointment. But disappointment is still the word. Continue reading NHL PLAYOFFS: Game 1 – Wild @ Vegas
Games this week:
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Tonight is the last game of the season between Colorado and Las Vegas, the two teams at the top of the West division. Here's what's at stake:
Of course, the team that doesn't win the division gets Minnesota in the first round. Las Vegas has already clinched home ice in the first round, but Colorado needs 3 more points to ensure that they would start the first round in Denver.
Marcus Foligno
Building off my comment in last week's Whangdoodle, let's play a guessing game. If i give you a graph that shows the Wild's xG% (all situations) in every game this season (depicted as a five-game rolling average), can you spot the point in the season where Foligno broke his ankle and missed 4 weeks? (click the image to see the answer)
If you guessed game 26, you are correct. He was out for 15 games, and when he came back the xG% quickly corrected itself to climb back over 50%.
To get some sense of the importance of xG% and its correlation to Minnesota's success, we can look at the Wild's record when they control scoring chances (xG% >55%) versus when they are significantly out-chanced (xG% <45%).
| xG% | Wild Record |
|---|---|
| xG% >55% | 17-3-1 |
| 45% < xG% < 55% | 12-5 |
| xG% <45% | 6-6-4 |
Those four losses in the top category are all memorable, and with maybe one exception, could have easily gone the other way.
To pull the whole thing together, you notice that the three groups the games were sorted into are pretty close to equally populated. When we factor in Marcus Foligno's presence, we get a different distribution
| Foligno? | Low xG% | Middle xG% | High xG% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8 | 11 | 18 |
| No | 8 | 6 | 3 |
| Total | 16 | 17 | 21 |
The last fact in all of this is that the Wild managed to end up playing six of their eight games this season against the Avalanche without Marcus Foligno in the lineup. This seems particularly relevant given the playoff scenarios that are playing out this week and how likely it is that we'll be seeing another Colorado-Minnesota playoff series soon.
Current Standings:
| Rank | Team | GP | Pts | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegas | 54 | 80 | 3 (division) |
| 2 | Colorado | 53 | 76 | 3 (R1 home ice) |
| 3 | Minnesota | 54 | 75 | 0 |
| 4 | St. Louis | 53 | 57 | #4 seed clinched |
| 5 | Arizona | 56 | 52 | eliminated |
| 6 | Los Angeles | 53 | 48 | eliminated |
| 7 | San Jose | 55 | 49 | eliminated |
| 8 | Anaheim | 56 | 43 | eliminated |
I mentioned this before, but even if the Wild don't earn another standings point, they will finish the season with the highest points percentage of any Wild season in their 20-year history.
Kirill Kaprizov Corner
27 goals in 54 games. He's 8th in the NHL in goals scored. One goal every other game hasn't been accomplished by a rookie in 15 years. (Ovechkin in '05-'06, 52G in 81GP, Svatos in '05-'06, 32G in 61GP)
51 points in 54 games. Tied for 19th in the NHL in points.
We're getting down to the end of the season, so you would understand if I said I was running a little short on Kaprizov highlights... Oh wait, the folder is still full.
I'm leaving out the highlights of his assists, because he had some beautiful passes, but goodness, he scored so much this week.
Enjoy!
HE. CANT. BE. STOPPED. pic.twitter.com/ih2gNJqUnt
— Hockey Wilderness (@hockeywildernes) May 4, 2021
Out. Of. The. Air. pic.twitter.com/JpMtDS69nh
— Hockey Wilderness (@hockeywildernes) May 6, 2021
This kid is unbelievable. pic.twitter.com/hGJ5vWZtKH
— Hockey Wilderness (@hockeywildernes) May 6, 2021
KIRILL IN OT OF COURSE! WILD WIN! pic.twitter.com/U81vAfokU7
— Hockey Wilderness (@hockeywildernes) May 8, 2021
Leaderboards
| Player | G | Player | A | Player | Pts | Player | xGAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaprizov | 27 | Greenway | 25 | Kaprizov | 51 | Kaprizov | 20.0 |
| Fiala | 20 | Kaprizov | 24 | Fiala | 40 | Eriksson Ek | 14.6 |
| Eriksson Ek | 19 | Zuccarello | 24 | Zuccarello | 35 | Spurgeon | 11.4 |
| Zuccarello | 11 | Fiala | 20 | Greenway | 31 | Sturm | 9.8 |
| Foligno/Sturm/Bonino | 10 | Spurgeon | 18 | Eriksson Ek | 30 | Fiala | 8.7 |
If Kaprizov doesn't score another goal this season, he'll finish on pace for 39.5 goals in an 82 game season. So, I think we can round that to say this was a 40-goal season.
Kaprizov is closer to Connor McDavid in xGAR (25.3) than he is to Eriksson Ek. He is 3rd in the NHL in xGAR. Anyone thinking about who will finish as the runners up to McDavid for the MVP will have to at least consider Kaprizov.
Also, raise your hand if you had Eriksson Ek down for a 20-goal season? It could happen!
Games this week:
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The first Wild-Blues games this year were postponed due to the outbreak of COVID in the Wild roster. One later meeting ended up getting pushed back due to Minneapolis curfews during the Chauvin trial and the protests of other police killings of black men. Finally, the Avalanche had a COVID outbreak and needed to reschedule some games against St. Louis, so the Wild-Blues games got pushed back one more time and consolidated at the end of the season schedule. So here we are. The Wild now have 9 games remaining, and 5 of them are against St. Louis.
It's been a strange season.
If the Wild win any one of those remaining five games against St. Louis, they will ensure that they finish above the Blues in the final standings, and can finish no lower than third in the division.
Current Standings:
| Rank | Team | GP | Pts | Magic Number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegas | 50 | 74 | 0 |
| 2 | Colorado | 49 | 70 | 0 |
| 3 | Minnesota | 50 | 68 | 0 |
| 4 | St. Louis | 49 | 53 | 6 |
| 5 | Arizona | 52 | 50 | - |
| 6 | San Jose | 51 | 45 | - |
| 7 | Los Angeles | 49 | 44 | - |
| 8 | Anaheim | 52 | 39 | eliminated |
The three teams at the top have all clinched playoff spots and now are only playing for the opportunity not to have to face one of the other two good teams in the West.
(Quick reminder - the first two rounds of the Stanley Cup playoffs this year are series within the divisions. #1 in the West plays #4 in the West, while #2 plays #3 in the first round. Once the four divisions each have a playoff champion, they will be seeded and continue with the semifinal and final round of the playoffs).
Given the huge disparity between teams 1-3 and teams 4-8 in this division, the #1 seed is a pretty enticing reward. However, Minnesota needs a lot of things to go right to be near the #1 seed when this all shakes out.
Relevant games remaining for the #1 seed:
COLORADO @ VEGAS (April 28)
VEGAS @ MINNESOTA (May 3)
VEGAS @ MINNESOTA (May 5)
COLORADO @ VEGAS (May 10)
Las Vegas - 5 other games (2 home, 3 away - 2 ARI, 2 STL, 1 SJ)
Colorado - 8 other games (4 home, 4 away - 4 SJ, 4 LA)
Minnesota - 7 other games (5 home, 2 away - 5 STL, 2 ANA)
Unless the Kings or Sharks get really hot really fast, I don't see how Minnesota catches both teams. Here's a scenario that puts the Wild in first place:
MIN -- 8-1 (81 points)
LV -- 5-4 (80 points)
COL -- 7-3 (80 points)
Las Vegas as a .500 team and Colorado dropping multiple games to San Jose and/or LA just doesn't seem likely. Not to mention a projected 8-1 record doesn't leave much room for error.
Kirill Kaprizov Corner
Scoring when he's the only Wild player in the offensive zone? Yep.
19th of the year for Kirill Kaprizov and that's a new @mnwild rookie record! pic.twitter.com/LMXef82CBz
— NHL (@NHL) April 22, 2021
Doing horrible things to this Kings defenseman? Check
(Watch his hips on this goal. Kaprizov convinces the D-man that he's going to try and cut to the middle by turning his hips without changing the direction he's moving. As soon as the defenseman slows to cut off that angle, it's a quick puck between the legs and turn on the jets to get to the net. It's like the anti-Shakira move. It's so pretty.)
GOAL OF THE YEAR! Kirill Kaprizov is a magician. #mnwild pic.twitter.com/NqnngNtr2X
— x - Sound the Foghorn Podcast 🚨 (@SoundTheFoghorn) April 24, 2021
Somehow finding a literal acre of space to set up and bury this Fiala pass? Check.
Kirill Kaprizov with the rocket Power play goal off a nice feed from Kevin Fiala #mnwild pic.twitter.com/50bo7MxNBR
— Alex Micheletti (@AlexMicheletti) April 25, 2021
Leaderboards
| Player | G | Player | A | Player | Pts | Player | xGAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaprizov | 23 | Greenway | 24 | Kaprizov | 43 | Kaprizov | 15.3 |
| Fiala | 19 | Kaprizov | 20 | Fiala | 37 | Eriksson Ek | 11.7 |
| Eriksson Ek | 17 | Zuccarello | 20 | Zuccarello | 31 | Spurgeon | 9.3 |
| Zuccarello | 11 | Fiala | 18 | Greenway | 30 | Sturm | 8.3 |
| Foligno | 10 | Suter/Soucy | 16 | Eriksson Ek | 27 | Fiala | 7.9 |
Games this week:
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With the two games just played against the Blues, the Wild have begun a three week stretch where they play only the middle part of the division. 5 more against St. Louis, 3 against San Jose, 3 against Arizona, and 1 against Los Angeles will take us into May.
This week all the games are at home (Wild have a 14-4 home record), so hopefully that bodes well.
Current Standings:
| Rank | Team | GP | Pts | Magic Number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colorado | 43 | 64 | 5 |
| 2 | Vegas | 42 | 60 | 9 |
| 3 | Minnesota | 41 | 53 | 16 |
| 4 | St. Louis | 42 | 44 | 25 |
| 5 | Arizona | 44 | 43 | - |
| 6 | San Jose | 42 | 40 | - |
| 7 | Los Angeles | 42 | 38 | - |
| 8 | Anaheim | 44 | 35 | - |
Two-game split with the Avalanche
The season series with the Avalanche is all done. The Wild went 3-5 with one of those wins coming in overtime. I think that's a pretty reasonable outcome for Minnesota - hard to expect much more than that against a team that's as good as Colorado. Goal differential across the season series was +6 for Colorado (31-25). The Wild just weren't able to shut them down the way they do just about every other team.
| Opponent | GA/G | GF/G |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado | 3.88 | 3.13 |
| Rest of the Division | 2.38 | 2.91 |
The power play really took off in this two-game set (6 goals on 20 shots), and showed how a successful power play can really help a team be competitive. The Wild scored 6 power play goals in two games, compared to the Avalanche's 3, which made the first game (a 5-4 loss) look better on the scoreboard than it was, and helped make the second game an 8-3 laugher instead of a much closer contest.
I'm trying not to draw too many conclusions from that super-fun explosion of goals on Wednesday night, but I will note this: Colorado's goaltending is almost completely dependent on Grubauer. They just traded to add Devan Dubnyk, which changes very little in this regard. If Grubauer is bad or unavailable, the Avalanche are a much easier team to play against. Keep that in mind if Minnesota-Colorado happens in the post-season.
Two losses to the Blues
The Wild have not been as good on the road (10-9-3 road record). And considering how badly they got blown out in Friday's game (losing 9-1), they really shouldn't be able to complain about missing out on points. But ... giving up the tying goal in the final minute, and the game-winner in the final seconds of OT hurts quite a bit.
Kirill Kaprizov Corner
If you wanted to, at the :03 second mark of this video, you could get really mad at the NHL for deciding that cross checks to the back away from the play are never ever penalties. Or you could admire Kaprizov's ability to find space (both Colorado defenders skated by him while he was down and apparently forgot about him?)
Or both. I can't tell you what to do.
Kirill Kaprizov is at it again. pic.twitter.com/iGg6cKUxur
— NHL (@NHL) April 8, 2021
Here he is again, sneaking behind an Avalanche defenseman to find just a touch of space and score.
Kaprizov one-times this through the legs of Nichuskin into the net. #mnwild pic.twitter.com/9nlotDvgxH
— Giles Ferrell (@gilesferrell) April 8, 2021
Even when they notice him, he still manages to find a way to make it work.
Find someone who protects you the way Kaprizov protects a puck #mnwild pic.twitter.com/d60YG6PnSR
— Kyle (@kjwmc) April 8, 2021
He's going to win the Calder trophy as rookie of the year. He remains first in rookie goals and points. He's got the most ice-time of any rookie forward, he's third in power-play points by rookies even though the Wild power play wasn't allowed to score for the first half of the season.
He's great. Tune in just to watch him. I'm telling you what to do, because I can.
Leaderboards
| Player | G | Player | A | Player | Pts | Player | GAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaprizov | 16 | Greenway | 19 | Kaprizov | 35 | Foligno | 7.3 |
| Fiala | 14 | Kaprizov | 19 | Fiala | 26 | Kaprizov | 7 |
| Eriksson Ek | 13 | Zuccarello | 16 | Greenway | 24 | Rask | 6.7 |
| Zuccarello | 8 | Suter | 14 | Zuccarello | 24 | Eriksson Ek | 6.6 |
| Rask / Foligno | 7 | Soucy / Fiala | 12 | Eriksson Ek | 20 | Soucy | 6.3 |
The Wild have essentially made the playoffs (more on this below) and unless there are some really big surprises out there (like a goaltender injury or two for Las Vegas or Colorado), they aren't going to catch either of the top two teams in the division. So, with 24 games left in the season jammed into 6 weeks, head coach Dean Evason has to ask himself whether the team is playing for regular season success or a post-season run?
Will they make the playoffs?
Yes.
St. Louis - 13-8
Arizona - 13-7-1
Los Angeles - 16-8
San Jose - 17-5
Anaheim - 18-2
Will they catch Las Vegas or Colorado?
Colorado is three points ahead in the standings, while Vegas is four.
Head-to-head games remaining:
4 games between Minnesota and Las Vegas (2 this week)
2 games between Minnesota and Colorado
2 games between Las Vegas and Colorado
It's probably a little early to throw in the towel on the idea of catching one of these teams, but the games this week might go a long way to making the decision. A couple of wins this weekend might give those thoughts of home ice in the first round some more oxygen.
But, if the Wild lose ground to Vegas, it might be time to spend the remainder of the season working to ensure that they are in the best position to make some noise in that first round matchup.
What to do?
To me, that means rest. All of these teams are going to be put through a gauntlet here over the next 6 weeks. Lots of back-to-back games, lots of travel. When playoff time comes around, it's very possible that success will be determined by who can send out the most complete team.
I would start resting one or two regulars when there are back-to-back games. Maybe not this week, but going forward, let Dumba rest his ankle for a three day weekend every once in a while. Have Kaprizov take a Monday or two off down the stretch so he's not dinged up. Brodin, Spurgeon, Eriksson Ek, Fiala, Foligno (once he's back) - all these guys are going to be needed in a playoff series in a big way. They aren't needed to add more standings points in a game against San Jose in the middle of April.
The Wild need 10 or 11 wins to lock up a playoff spot. (Their magic number is currently 19, but it's safe to assume LA/Arizona/St. Louis will lose at least a few games). They would need a lot of good results to catch Vegas or Colorado (their magic number for Colorado is 25, for Vegas is 26.5).
This isn't the year that the Wild are going to dominate the division and find the easiest road through the playoffs by playing low seeds. The really good results of the first half have put them in a place where they can be pretty secure in what the playoff picture looks like. Now Dean Evason should take advantage of that and focus on maximizing his team's chances in the NHL's second season (you know, the one that leads to the Cup).
This week's schedule:
Welcome back to late night hockey!
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The Sharks remain on the very outside of the playoff picture, but they keep not winning, so their opportunities are dwindling. San Jose has a winning record against the other two California teams, but is 3-12-1 against MIN, COL, LV, ARI.
Las Vegas has withstood Colorado's latest charge and remains on top of the division for now. They are still a very good team getting some very good goaltending.
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The Kirill Kaprizov Corner
There's the point in this clip (right where it goes into slow motion) where you can see the defenseman has no idea what Kaprizov is going to do. Cut to the middle? Use him as a screen? Go wide? So the Blues D-man decides to slow down and close the gap on Kaprizov to take away the middle of the ice. He gets closer, but Kaprizov just steps on it and flies around him, gets off a quck shot that Binnington doesn't square up to and finds the net.
It's so good.
Ladies & Gentlemen, Kirill Kaprizov. pic.twitter.com/3tYLDDA3AS
— Giles Ferrell (@gilesferrell) March 26, 2021
On the rookie leaderboards, Kaprizov's first in goals (11), first in assists (16), and first in points (27).
Kaprizov is tied for 10th in the NHL in even-strength points (25).
Leaderboards
| Player | G | Player | A | Player | Pts | Player | GAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaprizov | 11 | Kaprizov | 16 | Kaprizov | 27 | Foligno | 6.9 |
| Eriksson Ek | 11 | Zuccarello | 16 | Zuccarello | 21 | Brodin | 6.0 |
| Fiala | 9 | Greenway | 15 | Greenway | 20 | Rask | 5.8 |
| Foligno | 7 | Suter | 11 | Foligno | 16 | Kaprizov | 5.7 |
| Rask | 7 | Brodin | 10 | Eriksson Ek | 16 | Eriksson Ek | 5.6 |
I added GAR (Goals Above Replacement - from Evolving Hockey) to the leaderboards. It's a touch over 5 Goals / Win, so the Wild have seven 1+-win players so far this season. Can you name the other two players above 5 GAR?
Are the Wild good?
This is the question that keeps getting asked. It's kind of hard to believe that the Wild might be anything other than a middle of the road team that people mention only to say "yeah, they're ... OK, I guess." But here we are. They took 4 points off Vegas, and continue to dominate teams during 5 on 5 play and get pretty good goaltending to go along with it. At some point, the question has to be taken seriously.
The Analytic Method
Dom Luszczyszyn at the Athletic has a model that bases predicted outcomes on his Game Score stat (calculated by counting stats like goals, assists, shots, penalties drawn, but also factoring in possession stats like xG, faceoffs, and CORSI) as well as factors like strength of remaining schedule, injuries, etc. I like it because he continually updates how things have changed over the season, so you can see exactly where the model started to buy into the Wild as a legitimate contender in the West division along with Colorado and Las Vegas.
Evolving Hockey uses a team goal differential stat to compare team performance. The stat is broken down into four components:
In comparing the teams in the West across these four factors we see once again that the Wild are comfortably in the same statistical neighborhood as Vegas and Colorado.
The numbers in the table represent the team's rank out of 31 NHL teams. Shot Rate and Shot Quality are a comparison between a team and their opponent. The Wild have the largest differential in the NHL between the average quality of their offensive shots and the quality of shots they allow (they rank 5th in shot quality and their opponents rank 29th).
| Team | Goal Differential | Shot Rate | Shot Quality | Shooting% | Save% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas | 2 | 3 | 22 | 9 | 1 |
| Minnesota | 5 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 12 |
| Colorado | 6 | 1 | 18 | 19 | 16 |
| Los Angeles | 17 | 26 | 17 | 15 | 6 |
| St. Louis | 19 | 19 | 20 | 3 | 24 |
| Arizona | 23 | 31 | 16 | 23 | 7 |
| San Jose | 25 | 22 | 13 | 18 | 29 |
| Anaheim | 28 | 23 | 25 | 31 | 23 |
The DG plays with Spreadsheets Method
Which teams in the division have winning records (taking more than 50% of the points) against other teams in the division? Point percentage in this case is percentage of the points awarded in a game. So a win in regulation gets a team 100%, a win in OT or shootout gets them 67%, OT/SO loss gets them 33% and regulation loss 0%. Don’t be mad at me that this makes no sense, take it up with the NHL Standings Point Policy director.
TIER 1 - Las Vegas, Colorado, and Minnesota each have a points% greater than or equal to 50 against all but one team in the division. Las Vegas is lower than 50% against Minnesota, Minnesota is lower than 50% against Colorado, and Colorado is lower than 50% against ... you guessed it - Anaheim. (Colorado and Las Vegas have split their two games, so are each at 50% in their matchup).
TIER 2 - St. Louis, Arizona, and Los Angeles are each above a 50% points percentage against 3 other teams in the division. This seems like a natural second tier in the division so far this season. Dom's model would see this as a slight to St. Louis, but I think this matches the actual results pretty well.
TIER 3 - San Jose and Anaheim are certainly the low end of the West, generally not beating anyone consistently.
Now I can compare each teams result against those tiers so far this season:
| Team | P% vs. Tier 1 | P% vs. Tier 2 | P% vs. Tier 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas | 47% | 75% | 74% |
| Minnesota | 50% | 64% | 71% |
| Colorado | 53% | 67% | 58% |
| St. Louis | 42% | 40% | 70% |
| Los Angeles | 31% | 62% | 50% |
| Arizona | 28% | 52% | 64% |
| San Jose | 24% | 44% | 75% |
| Anaheim | 39% | 29% | 25% |
| AVERAGE | 38% | 53% | 62% |
What stands out here?
To quantify how much of each teams standings position came from games against each tier I calculated points earned above average using the numbers above.
| Team | versus T1 | versus T2 | versus T3 | Pts Above Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 1.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 8.3 |
| MIN | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 5.9 |
| COL | 2.7 | 2.8 | -0.8 | 4.7 |
| L.A | -2.0 | 1.9 | -1.4 | -1.5 |
| STL | 0.4 | -3.9 | 1.6 | -1.9 |
| ARI | -2.2 | -0.2 | 0.3 | -2.1 |
| S.J | -2.8 | -2.2 | 1.6 | -3.4 |
| ANA | 0.0 | -5.7 | -4.4 | -10.1 |
The Grand Conclusion
I think they're a good team, actually. Their point total isn't inflated by beating up on the bottom feeders and they've won some games against the best teams in the division. They have the statistical proof that they have played well, but that their success is not a fluke. Their scoring and expected scoring line up pretty well. (figure from MoneyPuck).
There is of course, a warning in this analysis. And that warning is the St. Louis Blues. The Blues have had a remarkably easy schedule in the first half of the season, playing 10 games against SJ and Anaheim (more than anyone in the division) and 5 games against Vegas, Colorado, and Minnesota (fewer than anyone in the division). But they ran up against a hot team in Los Angeles in February and dropped a bunch of points in games that they probably expected to win. Now they have to make those points back in the second half of the season against teams at the top of the division, a much harder task. Those 8 games against the Wild have become a much more important set now that the Blues are looking up at the Wild in the standings.
The first half of the season has gone very well, the Wild have surprised a bunch of people by being legitimately good and exciting and fun. In the second half, the biggest danger becomes running into a cold streak or an opponent's hot streak that cuts into the advantage they've built by playing as one of the best teams in the division so far.
This week's schedule:
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A whole bunch more words on the standings are up above, but here's how they look as everyone approaches the halfway point.
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The Kirill Kaprizov Corner
Hat trick! 3 goals in one period! Look at how he shoots this puck on his second goal. He's turning on one skate, with no momentum toward the goal and still scores. AH! It's so good.
And while you're looking at that remember the 10 seconds before that where he comes off the bench like he's been shot out of a cannon and just ... skates past everyone.
He's so much fun.
🚀 🚀 🚀 pic.twitter.com/CyRiQdBYh4
— Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) March 13, 2021
On the rookie leaderboards, he's first in goals (10), first in assists (14), and first in points (24).
Players not Named Kirill
Who's got the best two-way line in hockey? Your Minnesota Wild, that's who.
Barkov or Barzal will probably win the Selke trophy for best defensive forward, but there will be a whole bunch of stat nerds who will take to Twitter and write "well, actually..." posts in favor of Joel Eriksson Ek.
since 2014, only one line has had a higher on-ice 5v5 xGF% (min. 100 TOI) than Greenway-Eriksson Ek-Foligno does this season.
it was Greenway-Eriksson Ek-Foligno last season.
— thomas williams (@nosalaryretaind) March 11, 2021
The bad news is that Foligno will be out for at least a couple of weeks.
Leaderboards
| Player | G | Player | A | Player | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eriksson Ek | 11 | Kaprizov | 14 | Kaprizov | 24 |
| Kaprizov | 10 | Greenway | 14 | Greenway | 19 |
| Fiala | 9 | Zuccarello | 14 | Zuccarello | 18 |
| Foligno | 7 | Foligno | 9 | Foligno | 16 |
| Rask | 6 | Brodin/Parise | 9 | Eriksson Ek | 16 |
The Whangdoodle switched media and joined the WGOMPHBP for a chat last week. Check it out!
This week's schedule:
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This schedule looks suspiciously like last week's schedule, except now all the games are in Minnesota.
Starting to see just a sliver of separation between the top half and the bottom half of the division. It would be good to add some points and really widen that split.
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The Kirill Kaprizov Corner
.@KaprizovKirill continues to impress with his pass on this @NBjugstad72 goal 🤩🤩 pic.twitter.com/7iAUzUpg6C
— NHL GIFs (@NHLGIFs) March 6, 2021
On the rookie leaderboards, he's first in assists (13), second in goals (6), and first in points (19).
Players not Named Kirill
Cam Talbot had a rough week, going 0-2-1 while giving up 13 goals on 96 shots (.865 save percentage - not what you want). In the three games Talbot started this week, opponents outscored their xG by 5.7 goals.
So either Kahkonen is the better goalie right now, or playing goalie against Las Vegas is harder than against other teams. I guess both could be true.
The Wild power play is ridiculously bad. The went 0 for 9 last week, with no goals in 16:15 of power play time. That calculates out as 0.00 goals/60 minutes, which would be a rate that would put them last in the NHL.
The season long power play numbers are just as bad.
That last number gives us some hope that maybe someday the Wild will progress toward having an average power play. I'm not holding my breath.
The Wild have not given up a shorthanded goal yet this year, so the power play is ranked #1 in the NHL defensively.
Leaderboards
| Player | G | Player | A | Player | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eriksson Ek | 8 | Greenway | 13 | Kaprizov | 19 |
| Fiala | 7 | Kaprizov | 13 | Greenway | 18 |
| Foligno | 7 | Zuccarello | 9 | Foligno | 14 |
| Kaprizov | 6 | Suter | 8 | Zuccarello | 13 |
| Dumba/Rask/Greenway | 5 | Brodin | 8 | Eriksson Ek | 12 |
Six wins in a row! Hard to feel bad about that.
Thanks to a quirky California-heavy schedule and a COVID shutdown that skipped over some games against the division powerhouses, the Wild have fattened up their record to the point that they spent a couple of hours in first place in the division on Saturday night.
But that's probably selling this team short a little bit. They've played really well. The goalies have been really solid, the defense has been stingy, and they've gotten offensive contributions from several lines (who had Marco Nico Sturm down for a three-goal week?).
This week's schedule:
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Two teams that Minnesota hasn't seen yet this season will now be their only opponents for the next two weeks.
Las Vegas is good - they've beat up on everyone in the division except Colorado (10-2-1 record against non-Colorado opponents this year). Their goalie has been red-hot, they've dominated 5-on-5 (only the Wild have better even strength numbers in the West division). Their power play hasn't been amazing (18th in the NHL in goals/60), but they've been unlucky (7th in the NHL in xG/60), so I'd be OK not giving them too many chances.
Arizona has had a truly strange schedule, with more than half of their games coming against two teams (STL and ANA). But they've been a pretty middle of the road team (as evidenced by their 1.00 points/game place in the standings). They've lost when they've played COL and Vegas (1-5 record against those two), but also lost as many games as they've won against the California teams (4-2-2 record). Most of the stats favor the Wild in these games, but this is probably the team most likely to challenge the Wild for a playoff spot as the season goes on.
Updating the standings reveals that everyone except San Jose and Anaheim are very close. It will be interesting to see how long LA and Arizona remain in the mix, and if St. Louis can keep up with the top teams.
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The Kirill Kaprizov Corner
I love this kid. He's so good. He tries passes that other people wouldn't think of and then pulls them off. He's so strong on the puck and always seems to have somewhere to go with it. There's no other word for it other than that he's fun to watch. Since being paired with Zuccarello, he's started to get more scoring chances as well.
On the rookie leaderboards, he's first in assists (11), second in goals (6), and first in points (17). He's well on his way to the Calder, and if this pace continues, it won't be close.
Players not Named Kirill
Leaderboards
| Player | G | Player | A | Player | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eriksson Ek | 8 | Greenway | 12 | Kaprizov | 17 |
| Fiala | 6 | Kaprizov | 11 | Greenway | 14 |
| Kaprizov | 6 | Suter | 8 | Eriksson Ek | 12 |
| Rask | 5 | Zuccarello | 8 | Zuccarello | 11 |
| Dumba/Foligno | 4 | Hartman | 6 | Fiala / Rask / Hartman | 9 |
A Monday night game threw off my schedule. Here's a whangdoodle.
14 games represents 25% of the scheduled season, so we're now into the second half of the first half. Other than Eriksson Ek still leading the team in goals scored, I think this team has been pretty much as expected.
This week's schedule:
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We have to be almost done with the Kings at this point, right?
LA won three in a row last week to vault to the top of the bottom of the West standings - Minnesota's sweep of Anaheim puts them with the best points percentage, but the fewest games played. Separation remains difficult for this group.
LA - 17 points in 16 games
Arizona - 17 points in 17 games
Minnesota - 16 points in 14 games
San Jose - 16 points in 16 games
Anaheim - 15 points in 18 games
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The Kirill Kaprizov Corner
Kaprizov continues to lead all NHL rookies in assists and is tied for first in total points. (3G - 8A - 11Pts)
He is indeed - fun.
Players not Named Kirill
Leaderboards
| Player | G | Player | A | Player | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eriksson Ek | 6 | Greenway | 9 | Kaprizov | 11 |
| Fiala | 6 | Kaprizov | 8 | Greenway | 11 |
| Rask | 4 | Suter | 6 | Eriksson Ek | 10 |
| Dumba | 3 | Brodin / Parise | 4 | Fiala | 7 |
| Kaprizov | 3 | Eriksson Ek | 4 | Brodin / Parise / Suter | 6 |
