Game 106: Twins @ Blue Jays

Hughes (10-6, 4.11 ERA, 4.19 xFIP) vs. Estrada (8-6, 3.53 ERA, 4.62 xFIP)

With the way the post-ASB has gone, I'm finding myself falling into the depths of ambivalence. It feels like, as in year's past, this is when the team regresses. I keep trying to remind myself that they started the year off pretty terribly as well. But, the recent struggles of Glen Perkins has me concerned that it just isn't gonna happen. That's the guy I never really consider for someone who will have a run of crappiness.

Anywho, there are still games to be played. With Estrada's xFIP being over a full run higher than his ERA, let's hope the offense doesn't Price-ify him like they've been doing. Gotta get those runners in from third! Especially with Hughes having a HR year and the Blue Jays seeming to be fond of the long ball.

2015-16 EPL Prediction Contest

It's that time of year again. Here are your past champions:

YearChampion
2011 HomerDome (18 pts)
2012 MagUidhir (19 pts)
2013 Philo (21 pts)
2014 Philo (32 pts)

This year will crown our 2015* Champion. Can Philo go for a three-peat? Will nibbish finally break through and unseat him? Someone else? Who knows!

*Years are based on the day of the first fixture of the season.

And a reminder on scoring:

  • 3 points for correctly predicting the finishing place of a team in the final league table
  • 1 point for being +/- one position in the final leage table
  • A bonus point for correctly picking the league champion
  • One bonus point for each relegated team correctly predicted, up to three total. (Position doesn't affect this. If you pick them 18th, and they finish 20th, still a bonus point cuz they're going down)

Continue reading 2015-16 EPL Prediction Contest

Game 105: Twins 1, Blue Jays 5

The wins by Toronto & Baltimore yesterday, combined with the Twins loss, results in a virtual 3-way tie for the 2nd Wild Card spot. Technically, Minnesota and Baltimore are tied and Toronto is virtually tied, though actually a few meager decimals of percentage points behind the Orioles and Twins.

Also technically, Ervin "Not Johan" Santana took the Loss yesterday, but one could argue (as a few of us have recently) that the offense was at fault for the outcome. Now, the Twins were facing newly-acquired ace David Price, who is 4th in the AL in ERA (2.45) & Strikeouts (149), 5th in WAR (3.4), Tied for 6th in WHIP (1.08) and 3rd in Innings Pitched (154). For those who weren't watching or listening, I'd argue that the biggest inning was the 4th when, with the game tied at 1, the Twins managed to load the bases with nobody out. Rosario popped out to short, Hicks struck out looking and Suzuki struck out swinging. Not one productive out, though Suzuki at least had a long at-bat before succumbing to Price. That was it. Price then retired the next 12 batters in order and LaTroy Hawkins took care of the Twins' 3, 4 & 5 hitters in the 9th to salt it away. The Twins struck out 12 times - 11 at the hands of Price.

Santana was facing a Toronto club that is full of great hitters; a team leading all of baseball with 566 Runs scored, and he gave up two Home Runs and only lasted 6 Innings - not enough considering the recent slippage by the bullpen. However, the 5 Runs scored were less than the per-game average scored by the Blue Jays this year (5.3) and they only ended up with 8 hits in the game.

Couple of things.
The offense has been fairly streaky thus far, with lots of young(er) guys getting regular playing time, and their few known quantities batting about as expected. Only Dozier is in the top-20 in the league in OPS (.828) and Mauer leads qualified Twins players* with a .269 BA and a .333 OBP, though his .712 OPS is below league average. On offense, the pleasant surprises (Rosario, Hicks, Sano) have been offset by the disappointments (Vargas, Santana, Arcia and - though limited to 11 games - Buxton). The catcher position has been a black hole and the roster, as constructed, offers Molitor a bench with defensive capabilities, but limited offense. As I noted in the game log yesterday -

"...the fellas have been remarkably consistent - month-to-month - hitting .255/.306/.413 in May (hot) & June (not hot) combined and .255/.311/.420 in July. On the season, they've hit .276/.346/.439 with RISP."

We (I) was wondering what the Twins management would do at the trade deadline, considering where the club is at roster-wise right now, where they're likely hopeful to be at in the coming years, and how the current season has shaped up. We don't know what moves Terry Ryan attempted, only the one that he consummated - bringing in relief pitcher Kevin Jepsen in exchange for a couple of minor-league prospects. My guess is that, being realistic about this team and being unwilling to sell the farm for a chance at the Wild Card, knowing what he's put together in the bullpen and seeing the offense at work (and that Santana won't be available for any post-season play), Terry was not willing to sacrifice prospects to try and upgrade SS, Catcher and the Bullpen.

Secondly: They moved Mauer from behind the dish to try and protect him and prolong his career, expecting that being healthy would keep his bat in the line-up. In two years as a DH/1B, his line is .273/.349/.375 with a 101 OPS+ (good for 2.8 WAR), compared to career numbers of .323/.405/.468 and a 135 OPS+ before the move (good for 44.2 WAR). Is it time to wonder if this is the new normal for Joe? Of note, his .269 BA is 4th in the league for 1B but his .712 OPS is 9th of 12 qualifiers.

*There are only four players who currently qualify for the batting title: Dozier, Mauer, Plouffe! and Hunter. The next closest qualifier is Suzuki with nearly 70 fewer at-bats than Torii.

August 4, 2015: Road Construction …

I know construction season in Minnesota is the cause of all sorts of headaches for people who commute regularly via highways & byways. Another perspective is watching with amazement as an interstate is completely remade (and in some cases moved entirely) over the course of a couple of years. The one I've been watching experiencing is I-35E as it leaves downtown St. Paul heading north. Impressive stuff.
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httpv://youtu.be/bqZgvaEKcPc

Happy Birthday–August 4

Jake Beckley (1867)
Dolf Luque (1890)
Chick Galloway (1896)
Ski Melillo (1899)
Bill Hallahan (1902)
George Caster (1907)
Tuck Stainback (1911)
Luke Easter (1915)
Don Kolloway (1918)
Dallas Green (1934)
Frank Kostro (1937)
Ray Oyler (1938)
Cleon Jones (1942)
Johnny Grubb (1948)
Roger Clemens (1962)
B. J. Surhoff (1964)
Matt Merullo (1965)
Troy O’Leary (1969)
Bob Howry (1973)
Eric Milton (1975)
Scott Linebrink (1976)
Josh Roenicke (1982)

While this is an incredible day for names, it should be pointed out that none of these players was listed here because of his name.  In fact, each of them had a substantial baseball career.

Continue reading Happy Birthday–August 4