Before Game 1, ZiPS had the Astros at 59.7% chance of winning. After Cole losing for the first time since the Nationals were bad, now the Nationals have a 57.8% chance of winning. However, the Astros still maintain a greater than 50% chance of winning every game of the series.
Game 1 of the 2019 World Series, Washington Nationals versus the Houston Astros. This one promises to be a series of excellent starting pitching on both sides and will be fun to see how each dominant starter matches up. Tonight Max Scherzer (who’s given up 1 earned run in 15 playoff innings this year) v. Gerrit Cole (who’s given up 1 earned run in 22.2 playoff innings this year). Which team will get to the pitcher first?
First pitch slated at 7:08p from Houston.
Verlander vs Paxton
Three must win games for the Yankees. Prior to yesterday's game, Szymborski calculated the Astros winning game four followed by three Yankees wins at 5.9% chance of happening following the rainout. Not quite the least likely but very close. The Astros meanwhile had a 70.1% chance.
Fast forward through a pleasingly error-filled Yankees loss and that probability is now 92%. They also have an improbable 65% chance at winning it all. That unfortunately means another short series and lots of waiting until the World Series.
Stuck with only ALCS now.
Greinke vs Tanaka
Astros at Yankees at 3:08p. Cards at Nats at 7:10p.
Nationals going for the sweep while it looks like Astros-Yankees could go 6 or 7 games.
I opined to someone that I'm not sure if this series will make it back to St. Louis. I doubt there will be a sweep but winning two games against Strasburg, Corbin, and Sánchez seems unlikely.
James Paxton vs Justin Verlander
Astros discover for themselves the Yankees are pretty good. They have some good pitchers too so this should be a good series still.
Washington at St. Louis, in progress.
Max "7/$210 million and already worth $250 million" Scherzer vs Adam Wainwright
New York at Houston, 7:08 p.m.
Masahiro Tanaka vs Zack Greinke
Game in progress, bottom of the 1st.
St. Louis at Atlanta, 4:02 p.m.
Jack Flaherty vs Mike Foltynewicz
Washington at Los Angeles, 7:37 p.m.
Stephen Strasburg vs Walker Buehler
Two of these teams get to face each other Friday. The other two get to console themselves that they at least weren't swept.