Hey, friends! Welcome back. Happy to have you.
We have a special guest this time: Daneeka's Ghost!
Topics include:
Six wins in a row! Hard to feel bad about that.
Thanks to a quirky California-heavy schedule and a COVID shutdown that skipped over some games against the division powerhouses, the Wild have fattened up their record to the point that they spent a couple of hours in first place in the division on Saturday night.
But that's probably selling this team short a little bit. They've played really well. The goalies have been really solid, the defense has been stingy, and they've gotten offensive contributions from several lines (who had Marco Nico Sturm down for a three-goal week?).
This week's schedule:
 |
 |
 |
 |
Two teams that Minnesota hasn't seen yet this season will now be their only opponents for the next two weeks.
Las Vegas is good - they've beat up on everyone in the division except Colorado (10-2-1 record against non-Colorado opponents this year). Their goalie has been red-hot, they've dominated 5-on-5 (only the Wild have better even strength numbers in the West division). Their power play hasn't been amazing (18th in the NHL in goals/60), but they've been unlucky (7th in the NHL in xG/60), so I'd be OK not giving them too many chances.
Arizona has had a truly strange schedule, with more than half of their games coming against two teams (STL and ANA). But they've been a pretty middle of the road team (as evidenced by their 1.00 points/game place in the standings). They've lost when they've played COL and Vegas (1-5 record against those two), but also lost as many games as they've won against the California teams (4-2-2 record). Most of the stats favor the Wild in these games, but this is probably the team most likely to challenge the Wild for a playoff spot as the season goes on.
Updating the standings reveals that everyone except San Jose and Anaheim are very close. It will be interesting to see how long LA and Arizona remain in the mix, and if St. Louis can keep up with the top teams.
===================================================
The Kirill Kaprizov Corner
I love this kid. He's so good. He tries passes that other people wouldn't think of and then pulls them off. He's so strong on the puck and always seems to have somewhere to go with it. There's no other word for it other than that he's fun to watch. Since being paired with Zuccarello, he's started to get more scoring chances as well.
On the rookie leaderboards, he's first in assists (11), second in goals (6), and first in points (17). He's well on his way to the Calder, and if this pace continues, it won't be close.
Players not Named Kirill
Leaderboards
| Player | G | Player | A | Player | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eriksson Ek | 8 | Greenway | 12 | Kaprizov | 17 |
| Fiala | 6 | Kaprizov | 11 | Greenway | 14 |
| Kaprizov | 6 | Suter | 8 | Eriksson Ek | 12 |
| Rask | 5 | Zuccarello | 8 | Zuccarello | 11 |
| Dumba/Foligno | 4 | Hartman | 6 | Fiala / Rask / Hartman | 9 |
A Monday night game threw off my schedule. Here's a whangdoodle.
14 games represents 25% of the scheduled season, so we're now into the second half of the first half. Other than Eriksson Ek still leading the team in goals scored, I think this team has been pretty much as expected.
This week's schedule:
 |
 |
 |
 |
We have to be almost done with the Kings at this point, right?
LA won three in a row last week to vault to the top of the bottom of the West standings - Minnesota's sweep of Anaheim puts them with the best points percentage, but the fewest games played. Separation remains difficult for this group.
LA - 17 points in 16 games
Arizona - 17 points in 17 games
Minnesota - 16 points in 14 games
San Jose - 16 points in 16 games
Anaheim - 15 points in 18 games
===================================================
The Kirill Kaprizov Corner
Kaprizov continues to lead all NHL rookies in assists and is tied for first in total points. (3G - 8A - 11Pts)
He is indeed - fun.
Players not Named Kirill
Leaderboards
| Player | G | Player | A | Player | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eriksson Ek | 6 | Greenway | 9 | Kaprizov | 11 |
| Fiala | 6 | Kaprizov | 8 | Greenway | 11 |
| Rask | 4 | Suter | 6 | Eriksson Ek | 10 |
| Dumba | 3 | Brodin / Parise | 4 | Fiala | 7 |
| Kaprizov | 3 | Eriksson Ek | 4 | Brodin / Parise / Suter | 6 |
Hockey?
There's hockey again?
Well then, it's time to whang that doodle.
Remember last time I wrote one of these and I threw in this little note?
- Foligno had a positive Covid test on Sunday, so now we enter the seriously not fun part where we wait and wonder if this is a single case or the start of an outbreak through the team.
It was the second one. The Wild haven't played in two weeks and it feels like about half the roster has been on the Covid list in that time.
So now they're back, and they get to cobble together the rest of the season without really knowing who will be available or how many games they will play or when they will play them ... here we go!
This week's schedule:
 |
 |
 |
Oh hey, we're back in California!
So many teams in this division are right around the 1 point/game record. Any kind of hot streak would do wonders to separate from this group.
Arizona - 16 points in 15 games
Minnesota - 12 points in 11 games
Anaheim - 15 points in 16 games
San Jose - 13 points in 14 games
LA - 11 points in 13 games
===================================================
The Kirill Kaprizov Corner
Kaprizov leads all NHL rookies in assists and is second in total points. (3G - 6A - 9Pts)
There's not a lot of analysis to do here, except to say it's really fun to have an exciting player like this on the team.
Players not Named Kirill
Leaderboards
| Player | G | Player | A | Player | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eriksson Ek | 5 | Greenway | 8 | Greenway | 10 |
| Fiala | 3 | Suter | 6 | Eriksson Ek | 9 |
| Rask | 3 | Kaprizov | 6 | Kaprizov | 9 |
| Dumba | 3 | Brodin | 4 | Suter | 6 |
| Kaprizov | 3 | Eriksson Ek | 4 | Brodin | 6 |
This week's schedule:
 |
 |
 |
 |
Let's play the Avalanche again!
Last week's results:
MIN 1 - LA 2 - Highlights
The Kings are better than everyone thought, at least right now, but the Wild have to find a way to score that's in addition to Jordan Greenway digging the puck out of the corner and getting the puck to noted goal-scorer Joel Eriksson Ek. After this game, JEE was tied for 10th in the NHL in goals scored this season,
Russo had a column on The Athletic that hammered the Wild's current center situation. He doesn't see Rask, or Johansson, or Bonino, or Bjugstad as the answer, and right now it's hard to see how they will improve this pretty glaring hole.
The power play was 0 for 3 in this one and has dropped to 2 for 30 on the season (6.7% was 29th out of 31 in the NHL)
MIN 5 - LA 3 - Highlights
Look at that offense! Johansson, Kaprizov, Bjugstad, Fiala and (of course) Eriksson Ek scored. (JEE leaderboard update - only five players in the entire NHL had scored more goals as of Friday morning).
The near self destruction in the second period (11 penalty minutes in 14 minutes of game play) almost ruined an incredibly dominant performance by the Wild. Any time they were 5 on 5 against LA, they were in control of the game.
The power play was 0 for 4 in this one and has dropped to 2 for 34 on the season (5.9% was 30th out of 31 in the NHL)
MIN 1 - COL 5 - Highlights
I didn't pay attention to this one and you shouldn't have either. Not great.
The power play was 0 for 2 in this one and has dropped to 2 for 36 on the season (5.6% was 30th out of 31 in the NHL)
MIN 4 - COL 3 - OT - Highlights
Victor Rask will save us all. His two goals in this one kept the Wild in it, and then Greenway and Eriksson Ek set up Jonas Brodin for the winner 18 seconds into overtime. Everyone (I mean, everyone) knows that the Wild just won't find consistent success with this set of centers, but hey, it got them 2 points and a split of their first two games with Colorado, so I guess we keep letting it ride.
Colorado somehow shut down the goal scoring machine that is Joel Eriksson Ek for two games. It's only a matter of time though, until he's back on the scoresheet.
The power play was 0 for 3 in this one and has dropped to 2 for 39 on the season (5.1% is 31st out of 31 in the NHL - they did it!)
===================================================
The Wild are halfway through their season series with LA and have 6 points in 4 games. Do that again in the second half of the season series and I think that's a good pace.
The Wild have split every two-game set except the first one, which is enough for them to be one point out of first place in the West division. In reality, Vegas has played 3 fewer games than Minnesota and is still only one point behind, so if we assume Vegas would win one of those three games in hand, the Wild are in fourth in the division, behind Vegas, Colorado, and St. Louis. Raise your hand if you're surprised? Yeah, me neither.
The Kirill Kaprizov Corner
Kaprizov leads all NHL rookies in total points and assists (2G - 6A - 8Pts).
He is averaging the most ice time per game among rookie forwards by a full two minutes, so he's playing a bunch and he's been so good. Evolving Hockey has him at 3.4 GAR (Goals above Replacement) after 10 games, which easily above an MVP level pace (Small Sample Size caveats apply).
From Russo after Tuesday's game:
It’s unbelievable how many chances Kaprizov has set up for his teammates that they haven’t finished. Look at his pass in the first period Tuesday that Bonino wasn’t ready for. Look at his backdoor pass to Johansson in the third period Sunday that should have been a tap-in, go-ahead goal.
At some point, Kaprizov has probably just got to get more selfish and do it himself. He had no shots on goal against the Kings and ranks eighth on the team with 12 shots in seven games.
Players not Named Kirill
COVID news
Leaderboards
| Player | G | Player | A | Player | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eriksson Ek | 5 | Greenway | 8 | Greenway | 10 |
| Fiala | 3 | Suter | 6 | Eriksson Ek | 9 |
| Rask | 3 | Kaprizov | 6 | Kaprizov | 8 |
| Dumba | 3 | Brodin | 4 | Suter | 6 |
| 6 players tied | 2 | Eriksson Ek | 4 | Brodin | 6 |
This week's schedule:
 |
 |
 |
 |
Four home games this week, the Wild get another look at the Kings and then start a stretch of four in a row against the Avalanche.
Both of these teams are currently at .500 (Kings are 2-2-2, Avs are 3-3-0). That's surprising in both cases, although for different reasons.
Last week's results:
MIN 0 - ANA 1 - Highlights
The power play is bad (0 for 5 on this night, 0 for the season through three games). The Wild actually had the better control of play, but couldn't solve Gibson. Cam Talbot played a pretty good game in goal. Losing 1-0 is just so annoying. The team shooting percentage went from 11% (highest in the West) before the game to 7.7% (middle of the pack) after.
MIN 3 - ANA 2 - Highlights
The Wild were cruising, up 2-0, outshooting Anaheim 24-7 and then they just kind of lost it at the end of the second period and allowed the Ducks to tie the game. Then Kaprizov to Greenway to Eriksson Ek about 90 seconds into the third period and the Wild had their third win of the season. And they got a power play goal! Their power play was now 1 for 20 (5%) on the season. Infinitely better than 0%, but still not great. On the other side the penalty kill was 12 for 13 on the year and added a short handed goal in this one.
MIN 4 - SJ 1 - Highlights
Hey! A game with a goal differential greater than one! Thanks to two empty net goals by the Wild, but at least Parise and Fiala got their first goals of the year here.
MIN 3 - SJ 5 - Highlights
WW
===================================================
Two splits with two not great teams is not ideal, and this week will be a bit more of a test. We're over 10% of the way through the season, and now the Wild get to play some more of the top end of the division. Series splits with Colorado / Vegas will feel a lot better.
| TEAM | CORSI% | FEN% | xGF/60 | xGA/60 | Sh% | Sv% |
| Wild | 51.8 | 52.2 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 7.5% | 92.6% |
Overall stats look OK - CORSI and Fenwick are above 50%, so the Wild are carrying the play at 5 on 5 versus their opponents. Their shooting percentage is a little low, and their save percentage is high.
Special teams is going to be the thing, I think. If the power play starts going well and they keep this up at 5 on 5, they'll do very well.
The Kirill Kaprizov Corner
Is he more of a playmaker than a goal-scorer? That could be interesting.
Players not Named Kirill
| Shots Against | Goals Against | Fenwick Against | SV% | FenwickSV% | Reb per 100SV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talbot | 106 | 8 | 140 | .925 | .945 | 4.2 |
| Expected | 8.5 | .921 | .939 | 3.7 | ||
| Kahkonen | 76 | 6 | 114 | .921 | .946 | 2.0 |
| Expected | 5.4 | .921 | .953 | 3.4 |
Leaderboards
| Player | G | Player | A | Player | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eriksson Ek | 3 | Kaprizov | 5 | Kaprizov | 6 |
| Dumba | 2 | Suter | 5 | Suter | 5 |
| Parise | 2 | Greenway | 4 | Eriksson Ek | 5 |
| Fiala | 2 | Eriksson Ek | 2 | Greenway | 5 |
| 9 players tied | 1 | Pateryn | 2 | Parise / Dumba | 3 |
This week's schedule:
 |
 |
 |
 |
More California teams, and the home opener on Friday. Home games against the probable bottom half of the division are ones where the Wild need to get points and here are the first two in that category this season.
So far this season, Anaheim has lost two games to Vegas (one in OT) while San Jose split with Arizona.
Last week's results:
MIN 4 - LA 3 (OT) - Highlights
MIN 4 - LA 3 (OT) - Highlights
The Wild schedule has them playing in the pacific time zone for a pretty significant portion of their schedule, so naturally they wait until the absolute latest hour to make things interesting. Two games in a row the Kings had a two-goal lead (the most dangerous lead in hockey!) going into the third period, and two games in a row the Wild came back to tie, and then win in overtime. Requiring dramatic comebacks to beat Los Angeles isn't the most heartening thing, but also, hey they're 2-0 and adding points to their standings total, and you have to take the good with the bad.
Looking at some of the advanced stats (from Evolving Hockey), the Wild played better than the Kings across the two games, pretty handily winning at 5-on-5.
| TEAM | CORSI% | FEN% | xGF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wild | 53.6 | 51.3 | 3.9 |
| Kings | 46.4 | 48.7 | 2.1 |
Special teams was a little bit worse. The Kings scored two goals in 4 on 4 situations and added a power play tally. The Wild scored all 6 of their regulation goals during 5-on-5 play (they went 0 for 11 on the power play). So perhaps it mostly came down the Wild being the better team that couldn't find the net on special teams. That feels a little better, right?
The weirdest thing from the small sample size of two games is how much of the Wild's scoring has come from the defense. Suter, Brodin, and Dumba all scored goals, and the Wild have four defensemen with multiple points. Greenway is the only forward with more than a single point so far.
...
Oh yeah, and Kaprizov, who has 4 points (1G, 3A).
The Kirill Kaprizov Corner
We do love our alliteration here at the WWW.
Kaprizov really didn't waste any time grabbing every Wild internet commenter's attention in his first NHL season. Three points in his debut, including the overtime winner, then after a shaky couple periods in game 2, he dazzled again in overtime and set up Johansson's game winning goal. He's the thing that everyone who is talking about the Wild is talking about after 2 games and it's kind of out of character to see Wild fans be incredibly positive about ... well, anything.
Players not Named Kirill
| Shots Against | Goals Against | Fenwick Against | SV% | FenwickSV% | Reb per 100SV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talbot | 67 | 6 | 87 | .910 | .931 | 7.2 |
| Expected | 5.9 | .911 | .932 | 3.8 |
Leaderboards
| Player | G | Player | A | Player | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 players tied | 1 | Kaprizov | 3 | Kaprizov | 4 |
| Suter | 2 | Suter | 3 | ||
| Greenway | 2 | Greenway | 2 | ||
| Pateryn | 2 | Pateryn | 2 | ||
| Brodin | 2 | ||||
| Dumba | 2 |
My favorite part of the new NHL season is that the NHL is insisting on calling it the 2020-21 season even though all the games will be played in 2021. Maybe if we keep pretending like things are normal, that will help?
The Wild kick off the 2021 season with two games against the LA Kings in LA, Thursday and Saturday.
 |
 |
Are the Wild any different from previous years?
Yes and no. Staal is gone, Koivu is gone, Dubnyk is gone. That's a whole bunch of turnover up the middle of the ice. In their place, the Wild have opted for a bunch of good to OK players (Bjugstad, Bonino, Johannson, Talbot) on short contracts to fill the gaps. They fit with the general idea of a Wild team is top-to-bottom OK, but never very spectacular.
If you're looking for spectacular, I think everyone is pinning their hopes on Kevin Fiala (whose 19-game stretch at the end of last year was that of an honest-to-goodness superstar) and Kirill Kaprizov (he's here! he's here! no longer just a source of Twitter highlight videos with Russian announcers!). Parise will probably still be a solidly productive player (that contract isn't horrible .... yet).
The defense is still the strength. I've actually seen season previews that tout the 3rd line (Greenway/Eriksson Ek/Foligno) as the best defensive line in hockey (get excited!), and the defensive corps is still just really really good. Even if Dumba doesn't bounce back, the top 6 defensemen are all solidly above average or among the best in the NHL (Brodin/Spurgeon). Suter will probably still be a solidly productive player (that contract isn't horrible .... yet).
All of that is to say the Wild improved their defense/goaltending which was already a strength. They added Kaprizov and a few solid but unspectacular centers while losing a few solid but unspectacular centers. So, everything put together, they should be right around the playoff bubble, probably getting in, but not expected to do a whole lot if they get in.
Are the Kings any good?
Probably not. They were almost at the bottom of the league last year, and aren't projected to improve a whole lot this year. They are adding prospects like crazy, but don't have a whole lot to be optimistic about this year.
How will this season be kind of weird?
The Wild are in the Honda West Division, playing these other seven teams over and over for the next 56 games. Ending up in the West was a little bit of a nightmare for travel and reasonable start times, but it's kind of nice for the Wild's playoff chances.
I think everyone pretty much agrees that Minnesota is the fourth-best team in the division and that they aren't particularly close to either third or fifth. Colorado and Las Vegas are really good, and the Blues are also a good team. Those will be the top three teams unless somehow hockey turns out to be inherently unpredictable.
Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles, and Arizona all have a lot of improvement to do to make it to playoff-caliber. There's always a surprise team that clicks and puts it together (I'd guess Anaheim is most likely to do that - but that's just a guess), but most of these teams are still a few years away.
Are the Wild rebuilding?
Kind of? They are accumulating draft picks (they have two first-rounders this year) and have a whole bunch of forwards on short contracts (only Parise, Zuccarello are signed for more than two years - ETA - and now Foligno). There could be a bunch of wheeling and dealing at the deadline if the season looks unpromising.
Should I watch this team?
It's not going to be a dominant season, but I think if the Wild find a line (or two?) that can score they will be passably good. Given the California teams they will be playing they should get some wins, and if they play Colorado, Vegas, or St. Louis tough it will be fun. Of course, if they end up relying on Cam Talbot to save games for them, it could be a low-scoring, frustrating year. Realistically, we'll get flashes of both and be working out playoff-clinching scenarios right down to the last day of the season. So if that sounds like your thing (and if you're a Wild fan, it must be) then yeah, you should watch this team.
The Wild are on the road again! Because of course they are. After this road trip, the Wild will have played 13 of their first 18 games on the road. But relief is coming? They have to play 7 of their next 12 away from home, which feels at least a little bit more even.
As always, we need to point out how terrible the Wild have been on the road (Tuesday's game in Anaheim notwithstanding).
Before this road trip:
So, naturally, they got behind against Anaheim and then calmly ripped off three third period goals to come from behind and win 4-2.
The story of this season so far is just how true both of those statements can be at the same time.
The remainder of this road trip includes the only two teams in the conference with worse records than Minnesota (San Jose and Los Angeles). Minnesota's record against teams currently below them in the standings sits at 2-0 (wins over Ottawa and Los Angeles).
Will this translate into wins? See the two bulleted points above and remember that they are both true and we'll never know which will be more true on any given night with this team.
Second verse, same as the first.
The Wild have been ... better at home, maybe even competent.
Kind of hard to make sense of this team that's obviously better than its 1-8 road record, but probably not as good as they have looked at home.
Hopefully that dichotomy continues for one more game tonight before their 4 game road trip.
