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2011 Twins Game Recaps

2011 Game 74 Recap: Twins 3, Brew Crew 4

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Weather: 67 degrees, cloudy
Wind: 12 mph, out to center
Time: 2:28
Attendance: 39,819

Box Score
Fangraphs

The Case of the Missing Mojo - Part II

The doll had no idea what she was getting into when she poured herself into my office on a dreary summer night a couple of weeks ago. Then again, I had no idea myself that the hunt for the Twins' mojo would take me from the Twin Cities to the sunny California coast and all the way back east to Brewtown. The name's Twayn. I'm a shamus.

I'd been on the case for two weeks, trying to find out who had the mojo, but this puzzler had more twists and turns than a barber pole. It seemed clear as gin at first - the starting rotation had to have it. Pavano, Baker, Liriano, Blackburn, they were pitching like a carnival barker - hard, fast, crooked and all night long. How else could you explain the way they've been dominating on the mound? Then in San Fran the offense took off like a Chinatown rocket, at least for an inning, so maybe they had the mojo. One thing was sure, there was no shortage of guys suddenly playing better than they were before the start of June.

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2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game 74: Twins at Brewers

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Scott Baker vs Randy Wolf

One thing that jumped out at me as I perused Light Rail's B-R page was his strikeout rate: 8.6 K/9. What? It did increase from 7.3 in 2009 to 7.8 in 2010, but I wasn't expecting another 0.8 jump. However, the season is just shy of 50% complete and so, how much of the increase is real? Fortunately, that was recently answered.

What we want is the K/(PA-IBB-HBP)* line, and that says at 126 denominator units, 50% is the player's ability and 50% is the mean. Baker has 369 PAs, which means 74.5% of the 8.6 K/9 is him while the other 25.5% would be regression to the mean. The mean we want would be Baker's historical performance with however much regression is needed.

Taking the last three years, Baker has 2240 PAs, which means we need 94.7% of those three years and 5.3% league average. Baker's three year average for those three years is 7.5 K/9, which is reasonably close to the league average of 6.8. Let's just use 100% Baker. More rounding error.

Putting it all together means the best estimate for his talent right now is 8.3 K/9. Combined with the miniscule (0.09) increase in his BB/9 rate equals good things for his results. His xFIP so far is easily his best yet and his FIP is slightly better than from 2008. Finally, an ace!

* I'm calling these PAs from now on, despite it actually not being a plate appearance. He has one intentional walk and four hit batters, so it's basically rounding error anyway.

2011 Twins Game Recaps

Game 73 Recap: Giants 2, Twins 1

SAN FRANSISCO 2, MINNESOTA 1
Record - 32-41 (4th in Central, 3.5 games out of 3rd)
Highest WPA - Duensing (6.2 IP, 1 R, 5 SO), Cuddyer (3 for 4, 2 2B, RBI)
Lowest WPA - Delmon and Danny V. (both 0-4)
NOTES - Non-Cuddly Twins went 1 for 26 in this one.
Fangraphs
MLB Recap
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Looks like a pitcher's duel, and, perhaps as expected, Lincecum was just a bit better than Duensing in this one.  Twins hitters (Cuddyer excepted) never figured anything out against the Freak, striking out 12 times, and failing to get the ball past the pitcher's mound a bunch of times as well.  The Twins won't be the last team that Lincecum dominates, so I guess we can all take comfort in that?  At least Duensing held his own, keeping the Twins within striking distance throughout.

When Cuddyer doubled in Casilla in the ninth with no one out, it seemed there might be an outside chance that Minnesota could steal the rubber game of this series.  Instead Delmon, Danny, and Luke failed to advance him even a single base, and the Twins were handed their first series loss in quite a while.

2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game 73: Twins at Giants

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2:45 Central? What kind of goofy game time is that? Programming Note: This is the MLB.tv free game of the day.

The Dunce 4-6, 74.2 IP, 4.82 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 3.96 xFIP, 1.3 WAR
The Freak 5-6, 98.1 IP, 3.39 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 3.07 xFIP, 2.2 WAR

You know, I saw some mainstream junk asking what Lincecum(5-6)'s problem was this year, and I gotta tell ya: looks like the answer is "nothing." Score some runs for him, and he'll beat the other team every time. He's again on pace to throw a total buttload of innings; how long is that arm going to hold out? Is he that once-in-a-generation guy who can do that? I hope so, 'cause I always liked him.

Meanwhile, Duensing also has been better than his mainstream numbers suggest, though certainly nowhere near as good as Lincecum. This isn't a game to be betting on the Twins, though it would be nice to steal a win before the Wolves amuse and depress us all at another draft tonight.

Two more days until Thome and Twitchy are back, right? I've been trying not to say "When the Twins are all healthy" because I'm not convinced it's ever going to happen, but wouldn't it be awesome?

2011 Twins Game Recaps

Game 72 Recap: Twins 1, Giants 5

LP: Nick BlacKburn. WP: Voglesong
Save? Nope, but a closer did pitch in the game !ONE!O!N!O!N!O!N!Nnnnn

MLB Video
Fangraphs

Over the last one game the Twins are 0-1. While that may be upsetting to some, if we back up a bit you'll see that over our last two games we're 1-1. That's right fellas, the Twins have been playing .500 baseball for 2 days. Awesome.

We all knew that the Twins win streak would have to come to a close sometime. Unfortunately, that time was wednesday night. Blackburn didn't pitch awfully, allowing 4 hits over 6 innings, but he did walk 3 and the hits he allowed were loud. 3/4 of our infield committed an error last night, so, yeah, the defense was sloppy to say the least. The offense was worse, mustering only 4 hits off Voglesong. But, don't let this get you down. The local nine have played exceptional baseball of the last month. I haven't had this much fun watching baseball since the race down the stretch in '06. So, for today, I'm going to stay positive.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dyMal2onfuM

Art: I love hanging out in San Francisco, there are a ton of galleries and museums showing excellent work. The SFMOMA holds a world class collection of modern and contemporary art. Just across the street from the SFMOMA lies the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts where they focus on big ideas, long contemplative conversations, and community interaction through art. I love the YBCA. Down in Golden Gate Park you have the de Young Museum which was recently renovated, and has a stunning observatory. If you happen to be in the bay area before July 17th, I would recommend you stop by the de Young and view Rupert Garcia: The Magnolia Editions Projects 1991–2011. Magnolia Editions, a fine art printmaking workshop, has been around a long time producing extremely good art that is extraordinarily well crafted. Speaking of printmaking, Crown Point Press is also located in San Francisco. Almost single handedly, they raised the bar for fine art etching and intaglio in America. Considered the leader in the etching revival, they published early print works by Chuck Close, Richard Diebenkorn, Wayne Thiebaud, and later threw their support behind the conceptual artists of the late 1970s. After stopping by these printshops you find yourself with a hankering to pull a few prints of your own you can stop by Griffin Press Co. in Oaktown and pick up one of the more beautiful and indestructible presses ever built. Oh, yeah, they're really, really heavy. And after you've made your first print you'll want to have a beer, why not stop in to the Magnolia Pub? Yeah, it's in the haight, you'll never get the smell of patchouli out of your clothes, but the beer is definitely worth the risk.

2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game 72: Twins at Giants

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Nick Blackburn 6-4, 91 IP, 3.16 ERA, 4.50 FIP, 3.82 xFIP, 0.6 WAR
Ryan Vogelsong 4-1, 64.2 IP, 1.92 ERA, 2.93 FIP, 3.37 xFIP, 1.5 WAR

If you find yourself looking at these numbers and saying, "What the hell is a Ryan Vogelsong?", you're not alone. Although his name seems only vaguely familiar to me, he's actually a couple of months older than I am and he's been kicking around pitching "meh" baseball for seven years now. From 2003-2006 he pitched rather poorly for the Pirates, then completely disappeared until last year when he pitched not so well for the Phillies AAA team, then was traded and pitched not particularly well for the Angels AAA team. So, naturally, now he's an effective starter for the defending champions.

Blackburn is an enigma as well, putting together a season (and, I suppose, a career) that I never saw coming. The Twins are now just seven games under .500 and six and a half games out of first after one of their best stretches ever, and although this is the kind of game that would have filled me with dread a few weeks ago, I'm finding it harder and harder to be pessimistic.

Keep it rolling, boys.

2011 Twins Game Recaps

Game 71: Minnesota Twins 9, San Francisco Giants 2

Well this sure was fun. The game started as I left my office, and by the time I got to my car it was already decided.

In the top of the first the Twins decided to celebrate the summer solstace by not making outs. This plan was, of course, ruined by Pavano's strike out and Joe GIDPer hitting into yet another double play. When all was said and done, the Twins tagged Madison Bumgarner for 9 hits, and 8 runs. He pitched one third of an inning. Yikes.

With a lot of room for error, Pavano pitched an efficient game. Thankfully he pitched much better than he hit batted. You chose the right profession, Carl. The game was essentially on cruise control until the 9th when Alexi "Babe Ruth" Casilla muscled up and hit his second homer in the last two games. If you extrapolate that out over the rest of the season, methinks Alexi will be in the running for MVP.

Eight wins in a row, three of them against the teams in last year's World Series, and two against the South Siders? Twins baseball is fun again. I am still surprised every time I see that they're under .500 on account of how good they've been playing. I'm thinking this is going to be a fun summer.

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 9, San Francisco Giants 2
Twins Record: 32-39, 6.5 GB in the AL Central. Do you suppose the Tigers & Native Persons hear footsteps yet?
WP: Carl Pavano (5-5) | LP: Madison Bumgarner (3-9)
Madison Bumgarner's Game Score Last Night? 2.

2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game Logs Game 71: Minnesota @ San Francisco Baseball Giants

325 Comments

Carl Pavano

@

Madison Bumgarner

Are we having fun yet?

No matter what arbitrary end points you chose the Minnesota Twins have been playing pretty good baseball as of late. They have won 6 in a row-- 9 of 10--  14 of 16-- well, if you go back much further than June 1st it doesn't look too good but you get my point. The Minnesota Twins are starting to do what many predicted them to do at the start of the season, be a winning team with aspirations of a division title.  This isn't new information to anyone here, of course.

If the Twins do the unexpected and climb back from from 16 or so games back from the division lead to claim the AL Central title there is going to be a ton of revisionist history claiming this team got hot once star players like Joe Mauer, Jason Kubel, Jim Thome, Tsuyoshi Nishioka,  Glen Perkins (heh), Justin Morneau, Denard Span, Kevin Slowey, and Joe Nathan all returned to the line up from injury. Only then did this team start to live up to its expectations.  I am just here to remind everyone the following players are the ones who trimmed the division lead down to 7.5:

Ben Revere, Rene Tosoni, Brian Dinkelman, Matt Tolbert, Rene Rivera, Drew Butera, Luke Hughes, Jason Repko, Trevor Plouffe!, Anthony Sleestak, Phil Dumatrait, Chuck James, Eric Hacker, and well, not so much Jim Hoey.

Just remember Brian Dinkelman when Reusse complains on the radio in September saying this team had no chance until their players got healthy. Remember Rene Tosoni when Souhan says the Twins would have won the division by 15 games if Joe Mauer wasn't such a wuss. Remember Chuck James when the Twins prepare to face the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs, again.

Summer starts today and the Twins are looking good.

I don't know about you but this is starting to get fun.

2011 Twins Game Recaps

Game #70: Twins 5, Padres 4

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Twins Record: 31-39
Fangraphs
MLB Game Wrap

Happy Father's Day to the WGOM Nation from Sunday Recap Central. Just imagine there's a picture of Butters Stotch hugging his dad or something right here.

Hitter of the Week: Even in a week during which the Twins win all their games, when two of those are 1-0 wins, picking this award gets a little tougher. Or, maybe it gets a little more obvious: Team MVP Michael Cuddyer seems to be the best candidate once again.
Pitcher of the Week: All the starters were good-to-great. I'll have to again pick Scott Baker as the best. He is this team's first half All-Star as far as I'm concerned.

2011 Twins Game Logs, Minnesota Twins, MLB

Game 70: Padres at Twins

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Dustin Moseley vs. Francisco Liriano

The Twins already have won four 1-0 games. The Padres struck out 10 times in eight innings against Scott Baker yesterday and now face Francisco Liriano. The Twins scored just one run yesterday and Mauer won't be catching today, although he could be a DH. Danny Valencia has homered in consecutive games, but he strained a muscle his arm in the eighth inning last night and most likely won't be playing today. Based on this and my many years of watching baseball, I'll predict a 9-7 game.

At least we won't have to sweat through a Matt Capps save since he's pitched in each of the last three games and probably won't be pitching today. Glen Perkins will probably pitch the ninth. I'm fine with that as long as Liriano goes eight. Actually, a blowout will be much better.

FWIW, Capps has allowed 1 run in his last seven innings with 5 hits and 1 BB and five strikeouts.