Game 75: Brewers 11, Twins 1

Another day, another injury.

I didn't get to see much of this one since I was going to an Inland Empire Sixty-Sixers game to get a replica San Bernardino Spirit Griffey jersey. I didn't miss much. For some reason, I didn't like Liriano matching up against the Brewers, but I wasn't expecting this. Add to that Delmon's injury and it's getting awfully hard to be hopeful about this season. Delmon wasn't having a good season on the whole, but he's been hitting better of late. Now it sounds like he's going to be out for awhile. Twins called it just a sprain, but when a guy gets carted off the field, that usually is more than a couple weeks for recovery. I wouldn't be surprised if Morneau returns to the field before Delmon does.

Keith Richards & Norah Jones – Love Hurts

i was considering playing a band from boston called "the sprained ankles" that are about as awful as the route _elm_n took on that ball. instead, lets go with a song that sums up what it feels like to be a twins fan sometimes.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inc3d2LudEA

yup, that's keith richards making norah jones horribly uncomfortable at a gram parsons tribute concert.

5 votes, average: 6.60 out of 105 votes, average: 6.60 out of 105 votes, average: 6.60 out of 105 votes, average: 6.60 out of 105 votes, average: 6.60 out of 105 votes, average: 6.60 out of 105 votes, average: 6.60 out of 105 votes, average: 6.60 out of 105 votes, average: 6.60 out of 105 votes, average: 6.60 out of 10 (5 votes, average: 6.60 out of 10)
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Happy Birthday–June 25

Joe Kuhel (1906)
Don Demeter (1935)
Dick Drago (1945)
Clay Kirby (1948)
Bob Shirley (1954)
Alejandro Pena (1959)
Mike Stanley (1963)
Aaron Sele (1970)
Michael Tucker (1971)
Carlos Delgado (1972)
Javier Vazquez (1976)
Aramis Ramirez (1978)
Paul Maholm (1982)

First baseman Joe Kuhel played for the franchise for several years while it was in Washington, and later managed the team there.  However, there do not appear to be any players with connections to the Minnesota Twins born on this day.

The Get Up Kids – Holiday

The Get Up Kids are not from Milwaukee.  However the Promise Ring are. When looking at Promise Ring videos I thought about how they were a crappier version on the Get Up Kids.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYm1PDwLrQM

I know it is cool to say the Get Up Kids suck but the Something to Write Home About album most definitely did not suck, at least in 2000.

2 votes, average: 7.50 out of 102 votes, average: 7.50 out of 102 votes, average: 7.50 out of 102 votes, average: 7.50 out of 102 votes, average: 7.50 out of 102 votes, average: 7.50 out of 102 votes, average: 7.50 out of 102 votes, average: 7.50 out of 102 votes, average: 7.50 out of 102 votes, average: 7.50 out of 10 (2 votes, average: 7.50 out of 10)
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2011 Game 74 Recap: Twins 3, Brew Crew 4

Weather: 67 degrees, cloudy
Wind: 12 mph, out to center
Time: 2:28
Attendance: 39,819

Box Score
Fangraphs

The Case of the Missing Mojo - Part II

The doll had no idea what she was getting into when she poured herself into my office on a dreary summer night a couple of weeks ago. Then again, I had no idea myself that the hunt for the Twins' mojo would take me from the Twin Cities to the sunny California coast and all the way back east to Brewtown. The name's Twayn. I'm a shamus.

I'd been on the case for two weeks, trying to find out who had the mojo, but this puzzler had more twists and turns than a barber pole. It seemed clear as gin at first - the starting rotation had to have it. Pavano, Baker, Liriano, Blackburn, they were pitching like a carnival barker - hard, fast, crooked and all night long. How else could you explain the way they've been dominating on the mound? Then in San Fran the offense took off like a Chinatown rocket, at least for an inning, so maybe they had the mojo. One thing was sure, there was no shortage of guys suddenly playing better than they were before the start of June.

Continue reading 2011 Game 74 Recap: Twins 3, Brew Crew 4

2011 Game 74: Twins at Brewers

Scott Baker vs Randy Wolf

One thing that jumped out at me as I perused Light Rail's B-R page was his strikeout rate: 8.6 K/9. What? It did increase from 7.3 in 2009 to 7.8 in 2010, but I wasn't expecting another 0.8 jump. However, the season is just shy of 50% complete and so, how much of the increase is real? Fortunately, that was recently answered.

What we want is the K/(PA-IBB-HBP)* line, and that says at 126 denominator units, 50% is the player's ability and 50% is the mean. Baker has 369 PAs, which means 74.5% of the 8.6 K/9 is him while the other 25.5% would be regression to the mean. The mean we want would be Baker's historical performance with however much regression is needed.

Taking the last three years, Baker has 2240 PAs, which means we need 94.7% of those three years and 5.3% league average. Baker's three year average for those three years is 7.5 K/9, which is reasonably close to the league average of 6.8. Let's just use 100% Baker. More rounding error.

Putting it all together means the best estimate for his talent right now is 8.3 K/9. Combined with the miniscule (0.09) increase in his BB/9 rate equals good things for his results. His xFIP so far is easily his best yet and his FIP is slightly better than from 2008. Finally, an ace!

* I'm calling these PAs from now on, despite it actually not being a plate appearance. He has one intentional walk and four hit batters, so it's basically rounding error anyway.

Game 73 Recap: Giants 2, Twins 1

SAN FRANSISCO 2, MINNESOTA 1
Record
- 32-41 (4th in Central, 3.5 games out of 3rd)
Highest WPA
- Duensing (6.2 IP, 1 R, 5 SO), Cuddyer (3 for 4, 2 2B, RBI)
Lowest WPA - Delmon and Danny V. (both 0-4)
NOTES - Non-Cuddly Twins went 1 for 26 in this one.
Fangraphs

MLB Recap
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Looks like a pitcher's duel, and, perhaps as expected, Lincecum was just a bit better than Duensing in this one.  Twins hitters (Cuddyer excepted) never figured anything out against the Freak, striking out 12 times, and failing to get the ball past the pitcher's mound a bunch of times as well.  The Twins won't be the last team that Lincecum dominates, so I guess we can all take comfort in that?  At least Duensing held his own, keeping the Twins within striking distance throughout.

When Cuddyer doubled in Casilla in the ninth with no one out, it seemed there might be an outside chance that Minnesota could steal the rubber game of this series.  Instead Delmon, Danny, and Luke failed to advance him even a single base, and the Twins were handed their first series loss in quite a while.