Tag Archives: Brian Dozier

Bull (Market) Dozier?

Brian Dozier is having himself one heck of a season. In the first 62 games (though mid-June), Dozier was OPSing below .700: .227/.325/.369, with only 7 HR & 12 doubles and a .250 BABIP. That put him on pace for this kind of season (pro-rated over 162 games):

GPAABH2b3bHRBBIBBSOHBPBAOBPSLGOPSBABIP
1627036091393201974311316.227.325.369.694.250

Here's what he's done since then:

GPAABH2b3bHRBBIBBSOHBPBAOBPSLGOPSBABIP
713222919320531253631.320.371.7421.113.308
1627356652134612715871443.320.371.7421.113.308

Take another look at that prorated home run pace. Since mid-June Dozier's been slugging the ball the way Bret Boone could only have dreamed.

But has he been hitting cheapies? According to Home Run Tracker, Dozier's average true distance this season is 397.7 feet, which is just below the AL average (399.2 ft) and his average speed off the bat is 103.7 mph, just a tick below average (103.9 mph). Only two of his homers have been hit to the right of dead-center (off Cesar Ramos in Arlington & Carlos Rodon in Chicago). Home Run Tracker rates 8 of Dozier's homers as "No Doubt" clouts, which ties him with the following players: M. Machado, E. Longoria, B. Harper, M. Trout, D. Ortiz, E. Gattis, M. Cabrera, C. Gonzalez, A. Duvall. Some notable names with No Doubt hits that don't speak as loud: J. Donaldson, M. Sano, A. Rizzo, P. Goldschmidt, K. Morales, P. Alvarez, J. Upton, A. Beltre. Dozier is tied with Adrian Beltre for 5th in "Just Enough" homers, trailing both Jay Bruce & Robinson Cano (and one ahead of his playfully mephitic fellow keystone slugger Rougned Odor). Draw what conclusions you will, but it seems that Dozier's been neither wildly lucky or Thor-like.

Dozier's been just about as good on the road as he's been in Minneapolis:

SplitGPAABH2b3bHRBBIBBSOHBPBAOBPSLGOPSBABIP
Home683002727818319222513.287.343.585.928.288
Away652912526814219312554.270.356.567.924.272

Fangraphs' David Laurila wrote up Dozier's insight on his approach just last month (August 5th). Dozier had homered the night before (#22), "putting him on pace to match last year's career-high total of 28" as Laurila noted. The article's worth your time if you haven't read it already. I won't recap any of it here, other than to say I hope Dozier's philosophy is respected by the coaching staff & front office, and that he shares it more widely in the clubhouse. Last week Fangraphs' Scott Strandberg followed up on Laurila's interview with some analysis of Dozier's new swing mechanics. In a piece published at Fangraphs today, August Fagerstrom observes that Dozier currently is second on MLB leaderboards for two metrics: home runs (behind Mark Trumbo) and ISO (behind David Ortiz). What Dozier has done is truly historic. Fagerstrom: "[Dozier's] .298 ISO is the highest unadjusted figure in the expansion era (1961-present) for a second baseman and the highest by any second baseman not named Rogers Hornsby in baseball history (emphasis mine). Adjusted, Dozier is 6th since 1961, behind Joe Morgan ('76), Davey Johnson ('73), Bobby Grich ('81), Ryne Sandberg ('90), and Grich again ('79). A truly impressive list no matter which way you make it

That list also suggests something else: that Dozier's best days as a player may well be happening right now. Will the Brian Dozier we know right now – or, heck, even the Brian Dozier of 2014 & 2015 – be a solid contributor on the next great Twins team?

Dozier will be in his age-30 season next year. We all are familiar with the aging characteristics of bat-first second basemen, and if you figure Dozier's defense is about league average (as most metrics suggest), then the question begins to be shaped by forces outside of Dozier's control. Will the next great Twins team come before Dozier is a significant liability in the infield? Jeff Kent & Dan Uggla are proof that a team can trot out a mediocre defender at second base for a good long time if he averages 25+ bombs a season. If Dozier can keep that up, the answer two both questions is probably "Yes."

To finally get to the question raised in the title of this post: should whomever the Twins name as their new GM aggressively shop Dozier this winter?

Last season the Twins signed Dozier to a deal that has been very club-friendly to date: 4 years/$20 million. After this season Dozier is due $6 million in 2017, followed by $9 million in 2018. As the value of a win continues to rise (currently somewhere around $6 million $8 million per win), Dozier promises to offer significant value as long as he can stay on the field and manage at least the 2.4 rWAR/3.3fWAR he posted in 2015. By keeping him, the Twins have one major, veteran bat in their lineup for two more seasons. (With, I might add, a great approach to hitting, whether the front office appreciates it or not).

On the other hand, however, Dozier's contract and production could be extremely attractive to clubs looking to contend in 2017. The most appealing free agent second basemen this winter are probably Neil Walker, Chase Utley, and Kelly Johnson.

The major wrinkle in pursuing any trade is figuring out what teams might be looking to upgrade at the keystone next year. Of the obvious contenders, the Dodgers & Cardinals both make plenty of sense, but other likely first-league clubs are pretty well set at second: Cubs (Baez/Zobrist), Astros (Altuve), Rangers (Odor), Red Sox (Petunia), Blue Jays (Travis), Pirates (Harrison), Marlins (Gordon), and so on. Any non-Dodgers/Cardinals trade would probably need to happen with a team that is out this year but likes its chances next season.

So the question is, if you're the Twins' new GM, what do you do?

 

Meatloaf – Paradise By The Dashboard Light

Dozzy's flexing his manmuscles and going all the way all over the place, baby.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njDbtOBwyrg
1978

Ugh, I hate this song so much. Couldn't find a live version of Sam & Dave's “Knock It Out of the Park” though.

3 votes, average: 6.67 out of 103 votes, average: 6.67 out of 103 votes, average: 6.67 out of 103 votes, average: 6.67 out of 103 votes, average: 6.67 out of 103 votes, average: 6.67 out of 103 votes, average: 6.67 out of 103 votes, average: 6.67 out of 103 votes, average: 6.67 out of 103 votes, average: 6.67 out of 10 (3 votes, average: 6.67 out of 10)
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Game 134: White Sox At Twins

Tonight's game features the Twins best starter* of 2016 - Ervin Santana (6-10, 3.54 ERA, 118 ERA+, 1.201 WHIP) who, in pitching for a bad team, is 4-3 in his past 7 starts (49 IP, 13 ER's, 11BB:40K, 2.39 ERA, with an average of 4 runs of support) including a 2-0 loss to Atlanta on July 26, and a 2-1 loss to Kansas City on Aug 21.

The Twins offense will see Jose Quintana, quietly(?) having the best year of his career (11-9, 2.77 ERA, 147 ERA+, 1.103 WHIP). Quintana, also pitching for a (pretty) bad team, is also 4-3 in his past 7 starts (48.2 IP's, 10 ER's, 8BB:38K, 1.85 ERA, also with an average of 4 runs of support).

Based on the remarkable similarity of their results over their past 7 starts, tonight could be a very fun game if you like pitching.

The Twins are 2-2 against Quintana this season, losing their first two meetings, but beating him on June 28th & July 29th (though he recorded 8 & 9 SO's in those games respectively).

RECAP
-The Twins are 49-84 (6 wins behind their Pythagorean projected 55-79) and are on pace for 102 losses.
-60-102 would tie their worst W-L% since moving to Minnesota - their 1982 record.**
-A loss tonight ties the Twins longest losing streak of 14 games, set between May 19 - June 2, 1982. (The Senators lost 18 consecutive games at least four times: 1903, '04, '48 & '59.)
-Thankfully, they've got a ways to go to catch the '88 Orioles at 21 games lost in a row, or the modern-era-leading 1961 Phillies with a 23 game losing streak.

On a more positive note, highlighted by dw early this morning, Dozier has accumulated 5.4 WAR*** this year, and at 2.5 WAR so far, Joe Mauer is only .6 WAR behind Kirby Puckett on the Twins career WAR list at 50.3, good for 6th all time.

*No other Twins starter has an ERA below 5, though reliever Ryan Pressly is 6-6 with a 3.65 ERA in 62 games
**There are 9 Senators teams with worse W-L%'s
***A career best. Maybe it goes without saying that 32 HR's and 81 RBI's (so far) are also career bests

Game 88: tigers @ twins

Wow. Don't give up on the Twins, eh? Or if you do, don't give up on them in the 7th inning, when you've already invested just under two hours in the game. I mean, the Orange is the New Black finale was good, but...

Anyway, today, we've got Alfredo Simon taking on Phil Hughes. Simon has crafted an acceptable followup to his AllStar campaign last season, whereas our man Phil seems to be pitching quite a better better as of late (though those strikeout numbers are still down. Get 'em up, Phil!)

Prediction: Twins 7, Tigers 1

Continue reading Game 88: tigers @ twins

Game 83: Orioles 2, Twins 4 (in 10 innings)

Brian Dozier (.260/.332/.517) didn't make the MLB All-Star game off of the fan's ballot, but those of us in Minnesota know what he's meant to the team this year. Last night, with 1 on and 1 out in the 10th inning, he hit his 17th homer to left to walk-off the Orioles, helped the Twins to move to 44-39 (2nd WC spot), scored his league-leading* 63rd run, 41st & 42nd RBI (third place on the Twins roster) and improved his team-leading OPS to .849. Among Second Basemen in the American League, only Jason Kipnis has had a better offensive first half (.340/.416/.503). I'm hoping fans of Major League Baseball make the right choice and Dozier is voted in. It'll be tough, three of the other 4 options are from NY, Bos & Chi-town, and the Royals fans have shown their ability to get out the vote (Moustakas is the 4th option).

Vote here if you'd like to see Brian accompany Glen Perkins to Cincinnati.

Every run last night was scored via the long ball: Solo home runs from Manny Machado & Adam Jones for the Orioles and Torii Hunter & Aaron Hicks for the Twins, followed by the 2-Run shot from Dozier.

Trevor May, pitching out of the bullpen due to the reinstatement of Ervin Santana, racked up the win after throwing 16 pitches in the top-half of the 10th, giving up 1 hit and striking out 1. Tommy Hunter, in a similar spot for Baltimore, took the loss.

*Tied with Josh Donaldson

Photo: Brad Rempel, USA TODAY Sports

Game 57: Royals 3, Twins 1

We've known all year that the fellas wouldn't keep up the opportunistic scoring in bunches with men on base indefinitely, or even without interruption. Unfortunately, over the past 10 (5-5 record), they have averaged 3.2 runs per game, or just under 1.5 runs less than they averaged through the first 47 games.

Last night, the Twins scattered 8 hits over 9 innings, the lone run coming off a Rosario homerun in the 7th. Their best opportunity to score came with the bases loaded and one out in the 3rd after a couple of infield singles and a Hicks double. Unfortunately, as sometimes happens in baseball, the next batter - Hunter - hit into a double play and the inning was over.

In the 5th, Escobar made it as far as second before Dozier flew out and again in the 7th, Escobar was on second with two outs and Dozier struck out to end the home half.

This year, Dozier is hitting .091/.375/.091 with 2 out and RISP (not good) but Hunter is a much more robust .381/.480/1.048 in that spot and is slashing .500/.500/.750 with 1 out and the bases full.

Plouffe was 0-4 last night and is hitting .150/.171/.250 in his last 10 games.

Of the regulars,* only Dozier, Hunter & Plouffe have an OPS+ over 100 and only Dozier (.268 BA) has an OPS over .800. The team leader in RBI is Hunter with 36, with only 3 GDP in more than 200 AB's. As I noted, sometimes the GDP happens in baseball, but you'd like to think that one in the 3rd inning won't end your last, best chance to score.

On the mound, Hughes took his 6th loss of the year, despite pitching 7.2 innings and allowing only 3 earned runs on 7 hits. The last run charged to Phil resulted from Thompson giving up a single to Hosmer and allowing an inherited runner to score. The first runs charged to Hughes came courtesy of a Kendrys Morales bomb in the 2nd. Hughes allowed a lead off single to Hosmer after getting ahead 0-2, and then fell behind 3-1 to Kendrys before grooving a fastball which was promptly deposited in the upper deck in right center.  He settled in nicely after that, allowing only 5 hits in the next 21 at-bats.

All in all, it wasn't a bad outing from Hughes, he just didn't get any help from the offense.

End result, the Royals have moved in front of the Twins for 1st place in the Central by mere percentage points. They'll have 2 more games to take the top spot back. They still have the second most wins in the AL, behind only Houston.

*Minimum 45 games played and 150 at bats.

 

Bear Image Copyright: Gerald D. Tang