Twins have a chance to even the series before moving on to Detroit.
Continue reading 2014 Game 33: Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians – STRANGELY EARLY DAY GAME ALERT
Twins have a chance to even the series before moving on to Detroit.
Continue reading 2014 Game 33: Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians – STRANGELY EARLY DAY GAME ALERT
Let's try to avoid the sweep here, boys, okay? -or- Relative veteran Johnson squares off against the rookie Patterson in his MLB debut.
Continue reading 2014 Game 26: Los Angeles Dodgers v. Minnesota Twins – Primetime
The first of two games scheduled for today, though time will tell if we even get through one of them...
Continue reading 2014 Game 25: Los Angeles Dodgers v. Minnesota Twins – Matinee
I'd really like to head home with a series win here.
Continue reading 2014 Game 21: Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays
The report of
mytheir death was greatly exaggerated.
-Samuel Clemens
A win today gets the Twins a sweep and back to .500. Kevin Correia (0-1) faces off against Jason Vargas (1-0). Another 2nd Inning like yesterday is a good way to go, IMHO.
Lineups:
KC
1. N. Aoki, RF
2. O. Infante, 2B
3. E. Hosmer, 1B
4. B. Butler, DH
5. A. Gordon, LF
6. S. Perez, C
7. M. Moustakas, 3B
8. L. Cain, CF
9. A. Escobar, SS
Min
1. B. Dozier, 2B
2. J. "Power" Mauer, 1B
3. T. Plouffe, 3B
4. C. Colabello RF
5. J. Kubel, LF
6. J. Pinto, DH
7. K. Suzuki, C
8. A. Hicks, CF
9. P. Florimon, SS
There's a game threatening. Will there be one? We'll see!
Continue reading 2014 Game 3: Team Twinned Cities v. Windy City Betas
Minnesota Twins get a televised Spring Training game under the lights. Game starts at 6pm and found on FSN+ and most Twins radio affiliates.
The Timberwolves are making a push for the playoff and play my favorite team the New York Knicks. 7pm on FSN.
Part One -- Game Details
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 R H E - - - - - - - - - - - - - Atlanta Braves 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 Minnesota Twins 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 10 0 PITCHERS: ATL - Smoltz, Stanton (8), Pena (9) MIN - Morris WP - Jack Morris LP - Alejandro Pena SAVE - none HOME RUNS: ATL - none MIN - none
Part Two -- Players of the Game, WPA Style
Jack Morris: 84.5% (!!!!)
John Smoltz: 31%
Dan Gladden: 23.4%
Terry Pendleton: 19.5%
Gene Larkin: 16.5%
Game Changing Moment--Sid Bream bounces into a 3-2-3 double play to end the top of the 8th inning. This improved the Twins' odds of winning by 29%.
Part Three -- Closing Observations and Thoughts
Listening to the games I felt there were an awful lot of triples. Thanks to br's play index, I confirmed those suspicions. 8 triples between the two teams was the most since the 1919 World Series. Also, the five triples (between two teams) in game five is third all-time, behind two different games played during the 1903 World Series. Mark Lemke is also tied for the record with two triples in one game and three in one series.
It took quite a while, at least one commercial break, after this game was over for any players to be interviewed. I kind of like that they waited a while and let the players have their moment first. Today, Morris probably would've had a microphone stuck in his face thirty seconds after Gladden crossed home.
That said, it was peculiar that they were able to interview most of the relevant players (Morris, Puckett, Gladden, etc.) but Larkin never got to say anything (at least in the immediate coverage).
Tom Kelly was awesome in his interview, as always. When asked about Morris going out for the 10th, he said (paraphrased) "He wanted to go out there and I figured, what the heck, it's just a game."
I've really enjoyed watching and discussing this series. Even though I knew virtually everything that was going to happen, I still felt tension and excitement. That's partly credit to the on-field dramatics (the 87 World Series is quite dull for the most part) and partly due to Jack Buck (Joe makes the '01 series very hard to re-watch). I hope you enjoyed this, too.
Part Four -- Twins Win!
Herb Carneal's call and a few minutes of talking with Gordo.
If you want to listen to more audio from the World Series, go here.
Part One -- Game Details
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 R H E - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Atlanta Braves 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 9 1 Minnesota Twins 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 9 0 PITCHERS: ATL - Avery, Stanton (7), Pena (9), Leibrandt (11) MIN - Erickson, Guthrie (7), Willis (7), Aguilera (10) WP - Rick Aguilera LP - Charlie Leibrandt SAVE - none HOME RUNS: ATL - Pendleton MIN - Puckett
Part Two -- Players of the Game, WPA Style
Kirby Puckett: 59.3%
Terry Pendleton: 39.4%
Carl Willis: 33.4%
Rick Aguilera: 28.4%
Alejandro Pena: 28.4%
Game Changing Moment -- Kirby Puckett's homer, shifting the odds by 36%.
Part Three -- Did Junior Ortiz make Scott Erickson a better pitcher?
Brian Harper was so much better than Ortiz as a hitter that unless Harper threw out zero percent of base stealers and allowed five passed balls per game, there'd be no reason to take Harper out unless he needed a night off. Not to mention the fact that according to WAR, Ortiz wasn't any better at catching than Harper. But he became Erickson's catcher, even in the playoffs. Why? Let's ask Ortiz.
"Good question. Why me? It was just that he was a rookie and I was a little more experienced than Brian Harper. So I got to catch him. It's him and me." (October, 1991)
Well that clears it up! Now let's ask Tom Kelly.
"Junior and Scott, they're on their own programs. Brian Harper was gonna catch five of six or six of seven for us. So I put Ortiz with Erickson and it worked. This way, Ortiz knows when he's gonna catch, Harper knows when he's gonna get the day off." (October, 1991)
So that means Harper was going to catch four of five. Well, you got close Tom!
So, let's take a look at the splits.
Junior Ortiz: 28 games, 1.34 SO/BB, .686 OPS
Lenny Webster: 4 games, 6.67 SO/BB, .591 OPS
Brian Harper: 1 game, 0.50 SO/BB, .805 OPS
Hey, Webster looks like an amazing catcher! But what about 1990, the other year Ortiz caught Erickson?
Ortiz: 15 games, 1.45 SO/BB, .716 OPS
Webster: 1 game, 0.00 SO/BB, .309 OPS
Harper: 3 games, 0.35 SO/BB, .842 OPS
Okay, so more small sample sizes for Harper, but Ortiz looks better again. Webster still looks amazing. In five games, Erickson was a Cy Young pitcher.
Harper did wind up catching Erickson for the remainder of his time in Minnesota. Let's stack Harper and Ortiz together, career with Erickson.
Ortiz: 43 games, 1.38 SO/BB, .697 OPS
Harper: 40 games, 1.25 SO/BB, .753 OPS
One more stat. Throughout Erickson's career, he had four catchers who caught him at least 39 times where he performed better than his career average. Those four catchers? Chris Hoiles, Lenny Webster, Brian Harper, and Junior Ortiz.
So, did Ortiz make Erickson a better pitcher? Maybe. Enough to make up for Ortiz's bat? No. Though Ortiz had an OPS+ of 112 in 1990, so perhaps the Twins were hoping they'd catch lightning twice.
Regardless, Erickson was never the same after 1992, with only one more good year the rest of his career.
Part Four -- Did Jack Buck want the Braves to win?
Someone round these parts mentioned he did not like Buck's call of Kirby's homer and felt he was a huge NL homer. So while listening to all seven games, I paid really close attention to see if I could pick up on such homerism.
Games 1 and 2: None detected. He seemed genuinely excited for the homers of Gagne, Leius, and Davis. In fact, he almost seemed to be rooting for the Twins.
Game 3: He immediately referred to Gladden's lead-off triple as "tainted" and called it as such multiple times throughout the game. It was kind of insulting, especially since it wasn't the easiest of balls to play. More damning, though, is that when Davis hit his dramatic pinch-hit game-tying homer late in the game, he seemed really annoyed.
Game 4: Again he seemed more excited about Lonnie Smith's homer than Pagliarulo's. And he went completely bananas when Lemke scored the winning run.
Game 5: Not much in the way of dramatics here. One thing I noticed, though, is that when the Braves had more or less sealed up the game, he mentioned at least twice how hard the Twins would be to beat at home and reminding everyone not to count them out.
Game 6: I thought Buck seemed more excited for the Twins this game. When Harper threw out Keith Mitchell trying to steal in the top of the 11th, he sounded very satisfied that Harper finally threw somebody out. I'm not a huge fan of the call for Puckett's homer, but I'm not a huge fan of most of Buck's calls of home runs. In fact, none of the ones in this series really stood out. It wasn't "go crazy folks!" or "I don't believe what I just saw!" but I didn't detect any annoyance that Puckett hit one out. He was just terse, as usual.
Game 7: I felt Buck was pretty neutral here, really enjoying all the crazy back and forth, just happy to be a part of such a great series. And I love his call of Larkin's single. He called it the moment it left the bat, and his pitch was perfect. Much better than Al Michaels' final call in 1987.
Conclusion: If Buck wanted the Braves to win, I think he hid it well. What I think he wanted was a competitive series, which is why he sounded like such a homer in games three and four.
Part Five -- Is there any logical reason Cox brought in Charlie Leibrandt to face Puckett?
Puckett versus lefties: 406/436/658
No. Or as Chili Davis said, "Bunt, my ass. Hit it out and let’s go home."
Part One -- Game Details
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E - - - - - - - - - - - - Minnesota Twins 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 1 5 7 1 Atlanta Braves 0 0 0 4 1 0 6 3 x 14 17 1 PITCHERS: MIN - Tapani, Leach (5), West (7), Bedrosian (7), Willis (8) ATL - Glavine, Mercker (6), Clancy (7), St. Claire (9) WP - Tom Glavine LP - Kevin Tapani SAVE - none HOME RUNS: MIN - none ATL - Hunter, Justice, Smith
Part Two -- Players of the Game, WPA Style
David Justice: 19.2%
(redacted) (redacted): 10.7%
Kent Mercker: 10.2%
Jim Clancy: 7%
Ron Gant: 6.5%
Game Changing Moment -- David Justice's two-run homer off of Tapani in the bottom of the 4th, starting the scoring barrage. It increased their odds of winning by 19%.
Part Three -- If A Chili Davis Falls in the Woods and Hits Dan Gladden, Does Anyone Care?
I am sure when the Twins signed Gladden they were hoping to get the 1984 version who had a .384 BABIP with an OPS+ of 145. What they got was a below average left-fielder who occasionally had a mediocre year with the bat with inconsistent defense and baserunning. His WAR totals with the Twins were 1.2, 3.4, 1.4, -1.2, 0.8. Not Delmon Young, but not exactly impressive for a guy who started over 120 games each year. It would have been nice to see Gladden primarily start against lefties, especially in 1991 when Randy Bush was mashing righties.
Gladden had a terrible year offensively in 1987, but he had a marvelous World Series that pretty much won people over. He was perceived to be solid defensively and a good lead-off man. Tom Kelly liked getting his bench players a lot of playoff time and probably realized Gladden was the weakest of his outfielders, so Gladden would often be the one to sit. But come playoff time, Gladden got all 24 starts, always leading off with his barely above .300 OBP.
In Game 5, Kelly decided to throw Chili Davis into the outfield, despite his bad defense and lack of playing time. Davis had been clutch so far and no doubt he wanted some spark against Tom Glavine. But instead of benching Gladden, he benched Mack, who had an all-star worthy season with a 140 OPS+. Mack in the first four games had four goose eggs, so I can understand the temptation. I'll give Kelly a pass on this decision.
What I want to know is, especially considering how bad Gladden was in 1990, how might the Twins have done had Gladden not been on the team in 91 and Davis had played the outfield the entire year?
Gladden was worth 0.8 WAR in 1991 in 511 plate appearances. Chili Davis, 3.3 WAR in 634 appearances. Chili was a full-time DH, but he had played a full season in the outfield in 1989, and about 50 games in 1990. I don't think durability would have been a huge issue in the outfield, but let's be conservative and say he goes on the disabled list once and loses 15 games. That brings his WAR down to about 3.0. In his past three seasons, Davis was a combined -25 runs for fielding. Let's be conservative again and say he posts -10 runs in a hypothetical 138 games defensively . That brings his WAR down to 2.0. Over one win higher than Gladden.
Now, we need to replace Davis's bats at DH. The Twins can easily do this with their bench. Randy Bush could be a permanent DH against righties. He notched a 1.1 offensive WAR in just 193 PAs. Again, let's be conservative and say any additional WAR he accumulates by having more at bats is negated by regression and batting against the occasional left-handed reliever. Against lefties, Gene Larkin and Pedro Munoz (also much better hitters than Gladden) could have easily handled the rest of the starts and their terrible outfield defense would be erased by being replaced by Chili Davis's terrible outfield defense.
I'm certainly not adept at manipulating WAR numbers and the above scenario is hardly scientific, but I think it's pretty clear that the Twins still could have won the division, if not had a better record, without Gladden. They probably score more runs on offense and give up more on defense.
Perhaps with their young pitchers, having the better defense is a good idea. Giving Erickson and Tapani confidence and not relying so much on the bullpen (which wasn't quite as good as the rotation) is not a terrible idea. And certainly, if I was running the team in 1991, I probably keep Gladden around, too (batting him 9th and platooning). But other than the some very timely World Series heroics, I think it's pretty clear to me that Gladden was one of the least important factors on either team.